May 5th & Everything After

HAHAHAHAH gasp for air HAHAHAHAHAH

2009-05-15T14:05:00.000-07:00

Dear Dude Who Outbid Me On That House in North Hollywood:

I. Win.

Prior posts here, here, and here.

Oh you crazy Tolucans!

2008-12-11T17:29:00.000-08:00

Yeh, yeh. I've been away. I know, I know. But a lot has been goin' down for ole Kate and, also, the prices aren't moving much there just hasn't been a whole lot to post about. BUT ENOUGH OF ME AND MY STINKING EXCUSES, RIGHT?

Some Jack Ass in Toluca Lake wants $810/sq ft for his house. Seriously. SERIOUSLY.

10444 BLOOMFIELD STREET, Toluca Lake, CA 91602
MLS#: F1792521

Beds: 2
Baths: 2/0
Sq. Ft.: 1,018
Lot Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.
MLS #: F1792521
$/Sq.Ft.: $810
List Date: 12/08/08

What do they think this is? 2007?

Where o where can the bottom be? O where o where can it be-e-e-e?

2008-10-13T11:48:00.000-07:00

No doubt you'll be hearing people say: "Now's a great time to buy! Prices have rolled back five years!" And they have rolled back about five years, at least in the flat parts of Sherman Oaks. Behold an average Zestimate graph for the area:

But does that mean it's a great time to buy? Well, I don't think so. Because check out the graph of that same house for the last ten years:

Yeah. Uh-oh! We've got another price dump coming up. The credit crunch and the DOW are strangling out even the most obstinate buyers and so I am pretty confident that another round of meaningful reductions will come. I'm recommending not buying for another 6 months minimum (but I suspect we've got another 12 to 18 months to get serious about buying).

OMFG

2008-10-09T17:47:00.000-07:00

Okay, okay. Are you like sitting down? Seriously. This is one of the reasons the Valley is so coolio. Here it is:

13630 ADDISON ST, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: 08_314527

Yeh, I know! It's like supercrazyfantastic right? Yeh, it's whackadoodle. But I still kind of want it. Because ... it could be super cool. And check out the stats:

Beds: 4 '
Baths: 3/0
Sq. Ft.: 3,388
Lot Size: 13,500 Sq. Ft. (Yeh! Not a typo!)
Built: 1977 (You know Rachel Zoe totally wants it now too!)
List Date: 09/18/08
List Price: $799k
$/Sq.Ft.: $236

And look at the fireplace:

And the bizarro 'Children of the Corn' wall mural!

They didn't even bother to paint over that. They were like: "What? That is totally some sweet mural! Keep it up!"

Wowsers.

2008-10-09T17:36:00.000-07:00

Remember this house on Blix? They listed it at $925k on March 28, 2007 then reduced down around $800k. Well it sold! Ayup. It sold last August. Guess how much? Go ahead. Guess. I'll wait.

Waiting ...
Waiting ...

Okay, I can't take it anymore. I'll just tell you! You, lazy reader, You. I bet you didn't even click on my link above. I can tell, you know. I can! I have that kind of tracking going on here. Anyhoodle. It sold for $635k. And the owner paid $725k in '04. Uh-huh, they did! And I suspect they did all those fancy upgrades. Oopsie! Some people shouldn't invest in real estate. Right?

WAKE UP, PEOPLE!

2008-10-09T17:27:00.001-07:00

*yawn* No, Virginia, your condo is NOT worth $800k.

4179 SUNNYSLOPE AVENUE #102, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: F1785991

Beds: 3
Baths: 3/0
Sq. Ft.: 2,073
List Price: $799k (Baaaaaa! hahahahah!)
List Date: 10/08/08
$/Sq.Ft.: $385
Last Sale: 06/14/05
Sales Price: $745,000 (Yup! They want more than they paid in '05! HAHAHAHA!)
Zestimate™ $675,000

NEXT!

13131 MARGATE STREET, Sherman Oaks, CA 91401
MLS #: F1786032

Beds: 3
Baths: 3/0
Sq. Ft.: 1,819
Lot Size: 7,200 Sq. Ft.
List Date: 10/08/08
List Price: $839k (Hi Delusional! You are talking North of Magnolia here!)
$/Sq.Ft.: $461
Last Sale: 11/13/03
Sales Price: $580,000
Zestimate™ $675,000

Getting a bit more realistic on Benedict Canyon

2008-10-02T10:52:00.000-07:00

So a couple of days ago I wrote about this house and today it's reduced even further.

4224 BENEDICT CANYON DRIVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: F1776216

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,246
Lot Size: 5,449 Sq. Ft.
List Date: 07/22/08
Last Sale: 05/20/99
Sales Price: $319,000 (so it doesn't look like a short sale, but perhaps they pulled out "equity")

Price Reduced: 08/12/08 -- $749,000 to $685,000
Price Reduced: 09/05/08 -- $685,000 to $649,000
Price Reduced: 10/01/08 -- $649,000 to $599,000 ($480/sq.ft.)

"Big reduction!! Must go!!!, now seller is in default on the mortgage!!! & vacant go direct south of the boulevard, great open floor plane,fireplace in l.R. Hard wood floors, tile kithen and bathrooms, french doors, was remodeled about 7 years ago included roof and a/c, alarm system with camera,washer dryer and refrig. Are included, dixie canyon school district, walking distance to ventura blvd. But yet very quiet, back yard with spa, yard need some work."

I still think it's a bit high for this market. But they may accept $550k. Personally, I wouldn't pay that much for this house but it never ceases to surprise me that somebody else will.

Top Ten Signs Your Bank Is In Trouble

2008-10-01T14:52:00.000-07:00

Amestoy's competition...

2008-09-30T18:28:00.000-07:00

5359 OAK PARK AVENUE, Encino, CA 91316
MLS #: F1782718

Beds: 6
Baths: 8
Sq. Ft.: 7,500
Lot Size: 17,250 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $573
List Date: 09/11/08
List Price: $4,299,000

At $573/sq.ft., I'd say this listing will give the Amestoy listing (below) a good run for it's money. Who says the high end hasn't felt the pinch yet?

Why not chop a cool million off the list price?

2008-09-30T18:22:00.001-07:00

Back in May, I posted about this pretty little number in Encino. At the time, it was listed at $7.9M. Well, hold on to your horses:

5266 AMESTOY AVENUE, Encino, CA 91316
MLS #: F1754357

Price Reduced: 04/17/08 -- $7,974,000 to $7,495,000
Beds: 7
Baths: 10
Sq. Ft.: 9,000
Lot Size: 37,100 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $766
List Date: 02/14/08
Price Reduced: 07/03/08 -- $7,495,000 to $6,895,000

Uh huh. That's a $1.079M reduction over 5 months. But at $766/sq.ft., it's still mighty pricey. Donchya think?

Seriously. No shortage of good listings under $700k

2008-09-30T18:09:00.000-07:00

3605 WILLOWCREST AVE, Studio City, CA 91604
MLS # 08_276885

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,934
Lot Size: 8,997 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $361
List Date: 04/30/08

But beware: this home has "geologic" issues.

Another one that would've blown my mind back in '07

2008-09-30T18:04:00.000-07:00

4731 BURNET AVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
MLS # 08_310299

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,033
Lot Size: 7,650 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $344
List Date: 08/25/08
List Price: $700k
Last Sale: 12/29/06
Sales Price: $725k

At $344/sq.ft. this home is moderately priced. It's a lovely little neighborhood and if the market were more stable I'd be all over this. It's a nice big lot. Sure the house needs some updating but it's got good square footage. You never would've seen this type of listing in '07. Note that they've only held the property for less than two years and it's a short sale. I am seeing foreclosure all over this one. Look for it to be listed under $700k soon.

And so it begins...

2008-09-30T17:55:00.000-07:00

I am suspecting that a lot of the overpriced listings I tracked last year are going to pop back up as foreclosed homes. Listings like this one that I blogged about last year (it was originally listed at $815k! HA! Click link for details).

3909 LONGVIEW VALLEY ROAD, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS # B2103672

Beds: 3
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 1,256
Lot Size: 6,307 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $490
List Date: 07/22/08
Sale History:
05/30/2008: $625,523
10/25/2005: $740,000
05/21/1986: $182,000

Price Reduced: 08/26/08 -- $669,900 to $646,905
Price Reduced: 09/25/08 -- $646,905 to $615,559

I'm thinking this would sell at $550k. You?

Under $700k SOB

2008-09-30T17:49:00.001-07:00

4224 BENEDICT CANYON DR, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: 08_298951

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,246
Lot Size: 5,450 Sq. Ft.
$/Sq.Ft.: $521
List Date: 07/22/08
Last Sale: 05/20/99
Sales Price: $319,000

Price Reduced: 08/17/08 -- $749,000 to $685,000
Price Reduced: 09/06/08 -- $685,000 to $649,000

I wouldn't say this is a bargain. But when I was actively house hunting, this would've totally blown my mind. I don't think $521/sq.ft. is appropriate today -- at $450/sq.ft. this home would be closer to $560k. But look out because $350/sq.ft. is just around the corner. If this seller were smart they'd drop the price before it's too late.

Oh. I have a blog?

2008-09-22T17:48:00.000-07:00

Sorry, Peeps. A lot has gone down here at May 5. Mr. Kate and I are going through some changes. Erm... that kind of sounds like he's having a sex change surgery, huh? Well, he's not. Sorry to disappoint. And I took a long trip to Italy that two words describe: "endurance contest."

And the market has just been limping along. I'm going to try to get back to posting real soon. That is, if y'all will forgive my absence.

It's the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine).

2008-08-14T10:22:00.001-07:00

I should preface this by saying: there could be a typo here. That's how stunning this listing is.

13260 MAGNOLIA BOULEVARD, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1779010)

Beds: 4
Baths: 5/0
Sq. Ft.: 4,218
Lot Size: 9,956
List Price: $625,000
$/Sq.Ft.: $148
List Date: 08/13/08

Last Sale: 12/07/05
Sales Price: $1,050,000

The baths have that model homey thing going on. But you know, people like that. And there's FIVE of them. So...

Kitchen clearly redone. So...

Yeah. I'm not sure what the hell is going on here. I gotta think typo. I mean $148 a sq. ft.? Last sale $1.05M? And the description doesn't even mention in passing that it's "priced to sell." I mean, at this price, you'd think they'd mention it. Here's the description:

Beautifully done gated spacious home on approx. 10,000 sq ft lot in gorgeous magnolia estates! Stunning kitchen w/ top stainless steel applicances, center island, high ceilings and breakfast area! Large formal living, formal dining rm, and family room! Gorgeous gleaming dark wood floors, 3 fireplaces, french doors, built-ins! Gorgeous master suite with sauna!Lovely yard with delightful bbq area! Stylishly done in like new condition throughout! Tenant occupied, temporarily cannot be shown

Zip Code Controversy!

2008-08-05T13:21:00.000-07:00

At least one reader thinks that house on Margate (see comment in post below) really is in Sherman Oaks. The commenter says that Sherman Oaks cuts off at Burbank. Which would mean that 91401 is half in Sherman Oaks and half in Van Nuys. Which is silly, really. As far as I'm concerned there are two Sherman Oaks zip codes: 91423 and 91403. Check out their cutoffs below.

Nevertheless, apparently the post office will recognize a few homes in 91401 as Sherman Oaks (using their address look up tool). Any of you Valley politicos reading this who care to share the city council history on this naming convention -- please feel free to do so in the comments. Or if you just want to wax poetic about your thoughts on Valley neighborhoods: hey, it's a free country. Knock yourself out!

Error or Realtor trick?

2008-08-05T11:42:00.001-07:00

It could be the case that there's a little trick that goes like this:

(1) If the house is in Van Nuys, list it in Sherman Oaks. Sherman Oaks is fancier and more people will look at a listing that would be ridiculously expensive for Van Nuys but is actually kind of cheap in Sherman Oaks.

(2) Put down the wrong zip code. That way no Zillow information will be available. ALSO! If you put in a super fancy zip code (like maybe Sunset Plaza) the sales comps will be way higher per square foot. BONUS!

Or it could be the case that the Realtor just made some typographical administrative errors. I report. You decide. Here's the listing:

13465 MARGATE, Sherman Oaks, CA 90069 ($649k)
Beds: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,304
Lot Size: 7,810 Sq. Ft.
MLS #: F1777810

Real address: 13465 Margate, Van Nuys, 91401.
Last sale: 06/21/2006: $700,000

UPDATE: The listing has the right zip code now (but still says Sherman Oaks). And it has a new MLS # :08_301921. Just a coincidence?

Damn, I am good!

2008-08-04T10:37:00.000-07:00

So, y'all might remember a little house I wrote about back in June. Here's the relevant part of the prior post (for those of you too damn lazy to click the link that I conveniently provided for you):

4343 AGNES AVENUE, Studio City, CA 91604

MLS #: F1761579
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq.Ft. 1,499
Lot: 6700
List Date: 04/04/08
List Price: $799k
Per sq. ft.: $533

Seriously. For that? Not even at the peak of the market, Honey. So they reduced. Twice. Behold:

Price Reduced: 05/29/08 -- $799,900 to $699,000
Price Reduced: 06/12/08 -- $699,000 to $649,000

And now it's just a tiny bit shy of what it would have sold for at market peak ($675k). But we are down like 20% off peak, right? So that house is worth ... uh ... $540k? That seems right. There's no central air, original windows and doors. No photo of the kitchen or bath (and we all know what that means). Oh yeah... did I mention the apartment buildings on three sides? Yeah.

Well guess what? They reduced again. Uh-huh.

Price Reduced: 06/24/08 -- $649,000 to $619,000
Price Reduced: 08/01/08 -- $619,000 to $589,000

But I gotta say, I think they'll have to come down to about $500k at this point. The peak is pretty much behind us and this house is just not a hot property. Time will tell.

Recent Sales

2008-07-15T11:09:00.000-07:00

UPDATE: Thanks to an anonymous commenter, we have down-payment details and sales vs. list price percentages on the recent sales below. Check out the comments, Peeps!

Here's a sample of June sales in 91423. Looks like we are averaging in the low $500's per sq. ft. south of the boulevard and hovering right around $400 per sq. ft. if you are north of the boulevard (but still south of, say, Magnolia).

SOUTH OF VENTURA
4243 COSTELLO AVE
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
3bed/2bath 1,804 sq.ft.
Sold 06/18/08 for $950k ($527/sq.ft.)

4033 BENEDICT CANYON DR
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
3bed/2bath 1,357 sq.ft.
Sold 06/13/08 $905k ($667/sq.ft.)

4007 KNOBHILL DR
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91403
2 bed/1 bath 1,015sq.ft.
Sold 06/12/08 $523k ($515/sq/ft)

4169 HAZELTINE AVE
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
3bed/2bath 1,816 sq. ft.
Sold 06/06/08 $925k ($509/sq.ft.)

3988 BEVERLY GLEN BLVD
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
2bed/2bath 1,338sq.ft.
Sold 06/05/08 $749k ($560 /sq.ft.)

NORTH OF VENTURA
4725 CALHOUN AVE
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
3bed/2bath 1,412 sq. ft.
Sold 06/06/08 0.7 $620k ($439 /sq.ft.)

13964 HUSTON ST
SHERMAN OAKS, CA 91423
4 bed/3 bath 2,264 sq. ft.
Sold 06/05/08 $805k ($356 sq. ft.)

It's summer. I'm travelling a lot. And the market is dull.

2008-07-11T10:44:00.000-07:00

So, in a nutshell, that's why I've been a bit scarce lately. I'm sorry y'all! But the weather is amazing and you should get up away from your computer and visit the beach or something. Sellers are still in deep denial and I figure the real stories are coming in the fall anyway. So I've been filling up a bit of the hours that I normally while away on the MLS at this fabulous little blog: THE BRICK HOUSE (It's mighty mighty!) It's all about "fixing up a 1950's mid century cement brick house. Trying to make it awesome and do it on a tight budget."

Here's a sample DIY project (before is on the left and after is on the right):

Not too shabby for a thrift store find.

MLS Garbage

2008-06-30T16:32:00.000-07:00

12754 SARAH ST, Studio City, CA 91604
MLS #: 08_291413

[server error -- photo available eventually]

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,001
Lot Size: 4,373 Sq. Ft.
List Date: 06/24/08
List Price: $719k
Last Sale: 01/20/05
Sales Price: $575,000

"This is not a short sale!! Fantastic price for this drop dead gorgeous beeman park area home!!Fabulous curb appeal greets visitors to this charming french country home exequisitely remodeled and decorated throughout*picturesque tree lined street*absolutely pristine home located in much sought after beeman park*gleaming wood floors,tumbled italian tile floors,custom windown treatments,crown molding,designer fixtures,decorator paint*beautifully remodeled kitchen and baths"

Really? At $718/ sq. ft. this isn't a short sale? Whatever. Grossly overpriced is what this is.

5503 HALBRENT AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91411
MLS #: F1773073

[server error -- photo available eventually]

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,440
Lot Size: 5,500 Sq. Ft.
List Date: 06/26/08
List Price: $6999k
Last Sale: 01/05/06
Sales Price: $670,000

"3 bedroom 2 bathroom house in prime sherman oaks. Remodeled. Priced for fast sale."

Priced for fast sale, eh? In what universe? You want $29k over what you paid at nearly the peak of market? I just spit Diet Coke out my nose. Good luck with that.

4237 BAKMAN AVENUE, Studio City, CA 91602
MLS #: F1772106

[server error -- photo available eventually]

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,376
Lot Size: 5,850 Sq. Ft.
List Date: 06/21/08
List Price: $839.9k
Last Sale: 10/06/06
Sales Price: $790,000

On this one, not only do the want you to pay market peak prices, they want you to buy all their furniture too (Uh, yeah. I love used furniture!). Ridiculous.

4621 ALLOTT AVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: 08_285759

[server error -- photo available eventually]

Beds:
Baths:
Sq. Ft.: 1,846
Lot Size: 7,280
Listing Date: 06/01/08
Price Reduced: 06/28/08 -- $789k to $779k
Last Sale: 09/27/00
Sales Price: $332k
Zestimate: $707,500
Based on List Price: $422
Based on Zestimate™: $383
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $326

Reports of my death were grossly exaggerated. And now this:

2008-06-13T18:15:00.000-07:00

4343 AGNES AVENUE, Studio City, CA 91604
MLS #: F1761579Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq.Ft. 1,499
Lot: 6700
List Date: 04/04/08
List Price: $799k
Per sq. ft.: $533

Seriously. For that? Not even at the peak of the market, Honey. So they reduced. Twice. Behold:

Price Reduced: 05/29/08 -- $799,900 to $699,000
Price Reduced: 06/12/08 -- $699,000 to $649,000

And now it's just a tiny bit shy of what it would have sold for at market peak ($675k). But we are down like 20% off peak, right? So that house is worth ... uh ... $540k? That seems right. There's no central air, original windows and doors. No photo of the kitchen or bath (and we all know what that means). Oh yeah... did I mention the apartment buildings on three sides? Yeah.

Here's the satellite view (thanks Google maps! You're the best!). The little yellow dude is standing in front of the house.

Let's go down to street level and see the house head on (so you can get a good view of the alley and huge neighboring complex):

And what's across the street? Hmmm?

Oh good! More alley. More apartments. Highly desirable.

The Undaunted

2008-05-30T14:10:00.000-07:00

My friend sent me this article today from the venerable NYT. It's basically two letters. One is from a prospective buyer saying: "get real." The other is from the "undaunted" seller saying: "I'll take my chances." Well, I suppose if you have the luxury of taking your chances in this market you aren't a real seller anyway and indeed your home will not sell. So, rather than write that response, why not just take your house off the market? Stop wasting everybody's time.

If you're shopping in Sherman Oaks and really feel the need to send correspondence to a seller, why not just email them a link to Tim Hebb's post today on Redfin? It's faster. It's more compelling.

I'm still waiting it out folks. This isn't the bottom. It's not even close. If anybody is undaunted here, it's me.

Mr. Big bought my house!

2008-05-28T18:00:00.000-07:00

Remember when I told y'all I found the perfect house?

Well, Chris Noth bought it. You can read all the juicy details at the supercrazyfantastic Real Estalker.

Add him to the list of our actor neighbors. And this is important. REALLY important. Do not go over there. Do not even drive by. That is called stalking and that is against the law. Okay, that's all. Carry on.

What is "corporate owned" exactly?

2008-05-22T14:11:00.000-07:00

11437 DECENTE DRIVE, Studio City, CA 91604
MLS #: F1768009
(photo not yet available)
Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,329
Lot Size: 5,180 Sq. Ft.
Built: 1964
List Date: 05/20/08
List Price: $749,900
$/Sq.Ft.: $322

Last Sale: 08/24/06
Sales Price: $1,400,000

Zestimate™ $1,171,500

" Corporate owned special!!! South of the blvd, nice tuscany villa in studio city hills*located on a quiet street* home feautures wood & tile floors throughout* 3 fireplaces* balcony with views* huge outdoor wood deck* large dining area* lots of character but this home needs tlc* priced to sell fast* "

So, according to Property Shark (god bless that site!), this home was purchased by Neda Baghbanmanesh for $485k in 2002. Then it looks like in 2005 Neda borrowed another $120k from Blueview Corporation in La Jolla. Then somebody sued Neda and filed notice of a possible lien. Then Neda sold it to Lillian Sedaghat-Pour for $1.12M in April 2006(that's a tidy profit). And good ole Lilian was able to sell it to Lorena Bendinskas for $1.4M in August 2006 (not too shabby for only holding the property for 4 months). Then an NOD was filed and then it looks like a Notice of Trustees Sale in August 2007. But there are no further transactions recorded. I guess it's possible that the reconveyance took place and that's the "coporation" that owns this property.

Anyhoodle, call me jaded but I suspect that Old Neda, Lillian and Lorena were not total strangers and something is rotten in Denmark.

But anyway this home is priced at $322/sq.ft. and that seems about right these days.

I have to sign off now and get on over to see Harrison Ford's new flick. Ciao.

The Valley is wild! Seriously.

2008-05-20T11:34:00.000-07:00

Sure people have horses in the Valley. But they aren't wild. And I'm not talking about coyotes. So what is it? What could be so wild in the Valley? Monkeys! Yup. In the Valley. And wild parrots too. Mmm-hmmm. No kidding.

Yeah, some guy put a whole bunch of monkeys in the Valley. Read all about this long gone Valley spectacular here.

EEEP! No wonder it's gone.

And, if you want to know why sometimes you see parrots in your palm tree, it's because when Busch Gardens closed they basically just let the birds go -- but some people say the birds "escaped". Read about it here.

(The old boat ride at the long gone Van Nuys Busch Gardens).

Gather 'round, Darlings. It's time for a stoning.

2008-05-20T10:13:00.000-07:00

Honestly, I am beside myself. When this listing hit my radar this morning I just shook my head. I mulled over what to do. And finally, after careful consideration, I determined that nothing less than a public (cyber) stoning will do. Ready?

14702 HESBY ST, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
(MLS #: 08_281791)

Beds: 2
Bath: 1.5
Sq. Ft.: 1,268
Lost: 6,751

Description:

"A jewel in the valley."

A jewel? Really? I'm not seeing it. I'm seeing a small tract house with ugly faux stone facade.

"Wonderfully redone home, kitchen w/ granite counter tops, s/s appliances and slate floor, mster bathroom w/ mosaic tiled floor and shower. The back yard feels like a park with it's fully landscaped yard. A great condo alternative."

Condo alternative? AT EIGHT HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS?

Yeah. That's right. Eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars for this. Cyberhomes estimates it at $556,813. Which is a generous $439/sq. ft.

But now, I have to do something I generally don't take on: edumacate the listing agent. Rachel Maslan, of Hilton & Hyland, please pay close attention to the map below. It shows all the other homes for sale in your client's neighborhood.

Not a clear enough picture for you? Let me pan out a bit.

This is what we call a buyer's market in every sense of the word. And you've priced this Van Nuys adjacent, two bedroom, tract home at nearly $700 a square foot. OMFG. Good luck with that. It wouldn't have sold for that at the peak of the market.

Here are some comps:

One word: Rookie.

2538 Sundown Drive - $799k

2008-05-15T17:12:00.000-07:00

I can't believe this house is really available at $799k. But, whatever, here's a link to the flier and here's the stats:

MLS Number 07-236455
Living Area: 1,812 Sq. Ft.
Lot Size: 10,869 Sq. Ft.

Thanks to Phaser21, you can see all the coolio photos here.

Whatever Happened To ...

2008-05-15T13:20:00.000-07:00

Today we follow up on a few old listings to see what happened. This post is made possible by the excellent people at Property Shark. Thanks Property Shark!

10748 Aqua Vista Street (Prior Posts)

Price Reduced: 07/02/07 -- $780k to $769k
Price Reduced: 07/17/07 -- $769k to $764k
Price Reduced: 07/18/07 -- $764k to $759k
Price Reduced: 07/23/07 -- $759k to $754k
Price Reduced: 07/27/07 -- $754kto $749k
Price Reduced: 08/25/07 -- $749k to $699k
Price Reduced: 10/02/07 -- $699k to $679k
Price Reduced: 11/28/07 -- $679k to $649k

Outcome:
Sold: 4/25/08 -- $451,000 ($442/sq.ft.)
Buyer:
Bank Of America Na 4161 Piedmont Pkwy Greensboro, Nc 27410

4702 Halbrent Ave. (Prior Posts)

Price Reduced: 10/05/07 -- $959k to $899k
Price Reduced: 10/30/07 -- $899k to $875k
Price Reduced: 11/26/07 -- $875k to $849k
Price Reduced: 01/03/08 -- $849k to $799k
Price Reduced: 02/16/08 -- $799k to $775k

Outcome:
Sold: 4/28/2008 -- $728k ($370/sq.ft.)
Buyers:Daniel & Teresa

4421 Noble Ave (Prior Posts)

Price Reduced: 07/10/07 -- $849k to $824k
Price Reduced: 07/17/07 -- $824k to $799k
Price Reduced: 07/28/07 -- $799k to $769k
Price Reduced: 09/06/07 -- $749k to $699k

Outcome:
Sold 4/24/2008 -- $697k ($514/sq.ft.)
Buyers:
Charlene & Jaqueline

13480 Contour Drive (Prior Posts)

Listed 3/20/08 -- $1.54M

Outcome:
Went inactive without a sale.

30-Day Change that'll make you choke.

2008-05-12T16:17:00.000-07:00

The dark blue line is for the 10 bedroom, 12 bathroom, 21,523 sq.ft. ~~house~~ palace at 750 Bel Air Road. The light blue line is for zip code 90077. Umm. Yeah. They lost nearly $2.5M last month. But whatever. I mean, you could've bought this place for that much back in 2003. And you gotta love that the Zestimate has a $10M spread. That just cracks me up. Because, you know, I work for a living.

Check out the photos. I'm pretty sure that structure on the right side of the gate is the gaurd's house. You have a live-in guard, right? And he needs a 2,000 sq. ft. house, right?

Check out the purple bedroom. It certainly is .... purple. Why do super rich people decorate like this? Do they all have the same decorator who can't think of any new ideas? Also, I think all those dressers are silver leafed. I don't get the "bed on a stage" look myself. But you know. I guess somebody does.

More stats for you Stats Hounds! (From Zillow!)

2008-05-12T13:00:00.000-07:00

Hi Kate,

Zillow just published Q1 home value reports. I thought May 5th readers may be interested in this information. According to our analysis, home values in the US experienced another historic drop, falling 7.7% over the past year (ending March 31st). One of two homeowners who purchased during the national market peak in 2006 are currently "underwater" on their mortgage.

A few links to this data …

1. Detailed quarterly reports for 160 MSA’s.

2.

3. Overview of Q1 home value trends.

Regards,
David Gibbons

P.S. In case you’re interested in how Zillow’s Zindex compares to the CSI.

Property Shark's latest foreclosure graph

2008-05-12T11:59:00.000-07:00

(click to enlarge)

I love me some MLS photos!

2008-05-12T10:31:00.000-07:00

This house is a wee bit overpriced so look for reductions soon. But I've featured it not because of the price. I've featured it because of the MLS photos. They're awesome! You'll see.

5512 BEVIS AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91411
(MLS #: F1766426)

*Yawn* Tract house. Well maintained. Garage in front. *Yawn*

What the? Mr. Kitty? What are you doing to that ottoman? Bad kitty!

Well, I better put ANOTHER photo up that shows the ottoman is unharmed. So people know.

Kitty! Get off the table! Off! It'll squick people out to see your butt right where they eat. We're trying to sell a house here kitty! You are not helping.

Seriously kitty. Just jump down. I'm going to take this photo one more time.

Just keep your little kitty head down. Keep it down ... keep it down. Just one more photo.

Kitty! What did we just talk about? About keeping your head down? Dammit kitty!

Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,300
Lot Size: 7,425 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 05/06/08
List Price: $649k

Price per Square Foot
Based on List Price: $499
Based on Zestimate™: $448 ($582k)
Sold Homes: $335 ($435k)

82% of Zip Realty readers think LA prices will drop.

2008-05-07T15:56:00.000-07:00

And so do I.

(click image to enlarge)

Feliz Cinco de Mayo!

2008-05-06T10:25:00.000-07:00

It's the two year anniversary of May 5. And being the devoted and talented blogger I am, I failed to click "PUBLISH POST" on this newsflash and it sat in draft form all night. Bummer.

But fear not! We are alive and well and the MLS commentary that you have come to expect from Cinco de Mayo de Blogspot will carry on for another year. Because, really, that's exactly what the Mexicans had in mind when the defeated the French at the Battle of Pueblo: a bitchy blog about houses in the Valley.

Love you! Mean it!

MLS Porn (Encino)

2008-05-02T14:17:00.001-07:00

5266 AMESTOY AVE, Encino, CA 91316
(MLS 08_255457)

Bedrooms: 7
Full Baths: 8.5
(you could use a different bathroom every day of the week and still not see them all!)
Square Feet: 9,010
Lot Size: 37,096 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 2008
List Price: $7.5M

"Simply one of the finest homes ever built in all of the san fernando valley. This italian farmhouse is a one story masterpiece. Boasting 9,000 square feet, 7 bedrooms and 8 3/4 baths on nearly 1 flat acre. This unrivaled compound offers cutting edge smart home technology w/ most every conceivable amenity yet still capturing the old world charm that makes this grand retreat an unparalleled estate. No expense spared.* This uncompromising magnificent estate is a must see for the most discriminating "

*Actually, it seems like they weren't willing to pay for all the required capitalization in the MLS description.

You can buy Samuel L. Jackson's old shack (in Encino).

2008-05-02T14:13:00.000-07:00

5128 ENCINO AVENUE, Encino, CA 91316
(MLS #: F1744018)

Bedrooms: 4
Full Baths: 4.5
Square Feet: 4,771
Lot Size: 38,640 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1981

Listing Date: 11/20/07
List Price: $3.8M

More proof that things have changed. A lot.

2008-05-02T13:53:00.000-07:00

UPDATE: Check out Tim Hebb's post on this property. Click here.

Check out this South of the Boulevard home in Studio City. It's priced to move. Let's wait and see.

3540 SOUTH COLDWATER CANYON AVENUE, Studio City, CA 91604
(MLS #: F1757191)

Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,003
Lot Size: 6,750 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1978

Price Reduced: 03/10/08 -- $1,300,000 to $995,000
Price Reduced: 04/29/08 -- $995,000 to $699,000 ($349/sq.ft.)

The "three-times" rule....

2008-04-29T10:59:00.000-07:00

L.A. Guy left a good comment that I wanted to chat about a bit more (his statements are italicized).

In my experience the rule of thumb is your mortgage payment can not be more than 1/3 your monthly gross income. I don't know where the 3x your annual income rule comes from, but in as much as the median household income for LA is something around $45K, it would mean no one should finance a mortgage of more than $135K. (Which even in the "good times" wouldn't buy you a garage)

Yes, but keep in mind that $135k is the mortgage -- not the price of the housing. So if you had a $100k to put down, then you'd be able to swing at $235k condo. You will be able to find some decent units in that range right now and even more by the end of the year.

If you made $45K per year, got a 30 year conventional at %5.75 you could finance $200,000 for payments of $1,167.00, still less than 1/3 your gross.

I don't disagree with you assuming we are talking about somebody who has strong odds of a higher income in a few years (e.g. a newly licensed nurse). But for people with unpredictable income streams or who have government jobs that provide reliable but small cost of living increases, that payment might be a bit high. I think they would be more comfortable with a payment that was 1/3 of their net pay (not gross pay).

I guarantee most people buying $1M homes are not grossing $330K per year. Of course if you buy a $1M home today you'll need to put $200K down, so if you finance the balance of $800K on a 30 year conventional at 6.25% you'd be looking at mortgage payments of around $5,000 per month, meaning you need to gross $15,000 per month or $180,000 per year.

Again I agree with you: many people buying $1M homes are not grossing over $300k per year. But that doesn't mean it's a good idea. They *should* be grossing that much to buy a $1M home. But let's say you were grossing $180k, I still think that $5k a month could be a steep payment for you. After taxes and retirment contributions, that $5k would be about 70% of your take home pay.

And no you never have to buy a house, but I think if you find a house you love, is reasonably priced and can comfortably afford, then why not buy it now?

Because you know with an absolute certainty that you will lose money for several years.

To me it would be like trying to time the stock market.

Typically the stock market is far more volatile than the housing market. And I'm not suggesting that you have to buy at the absolute bottom -- I'm just saying don't buy when you know it's the peak of a market that resulted from irrational exuberance.

Buy sensibly, enjoy your house and don't obsess over every last penny. Yes it may go down another ten thousand.

Again, I totally agree. Obsessing over every penny is ridiculous. But what if it's not just $10k -- what if it's 30% of the value of your home evaporating over the course of a year or two? That's something to think about for a minute.

Interest rates may go up another point too. $100K at 5% is the same monthly payment as $90K at 6%.

Yep. And that's why if interest rates go up, housing prices will go down even further. Because people won't be able to afford them otherwise. Indeed, that's part of the reason prices went up so much over recent years: low interest rates.

I'm not really disagreeing with your point, I just don't like these broad generalizations that anyone who buys now is an idiot. It depends on the circumstances and it depends on the house.

I do think that on 90% of the issues we agree. I'm not saying everybody who buys now is an idiot. And certainly there are lots of people who would think I'm an idiot for buying a pair of Dolce & Gabbana shoes recently (which lost about 50% of their resale value the second I wore them). I get that everybody has to make their own choices. But for most of us, this is not the time to buy a house.

Most of us can't afford to lose twenty or thirty percent of the biggest investment of our lives over then next several years. But for some of us that loss would be the equivalent of the Titanic losing a deck chair -- it's almost imperceptible. So if you are in the latter camp, this is a great time to buy because there is a lot of selection and you can afford it. But if you are a regular Joe like me, then all I'm saying is wait a bit longer. There's probably nothing wrong with your rental. And if there is, rent a different place.

"Yeah, but I'm in it for the long haul..."

2008-04-28T18:34:00.000-07:00

That's an argument that I clung to when I was seriously house hunting at the peak of the market. Whenever anybody said to me: "Now is not the time to buy" I would respond with: "I'm not in for a quick buck." I did! Check out this old L.A. Land post I wrote.

Which brings us to a comment that was posted by UserAndy today. He writes:

I think the 3x rule should be reiterated to buyers and lenders alike: No one should buy a home that costs more than 3x their yearly gross pay. Alternately, no one should be paying more than half thier monthly take-home pay on their housing costs. I like this rule better because it's just as good for renters as it is for potential home buyers.

However, you [Kate] don't address people that are buying to STAY. There is a really big monthly savings for home-buyers that have payed off their mortgages altogether. Not only does their month-to-month living expense drop significantly, but they now have a nice big asset that long-term renters do not. Prices, in the long run, will go up for both renters and homeowners.

For that fact alone, it SHOULD be (Andy's rules of Fairness) less expensive to rent than buy!

Andy is right that owning your house outright is a big savings. But most people stay in their home for about 5 years and never own their homes outright. (Go ahead, Google it if you feel the need). And so, for those people, it makes no sense at all to buy right now -- in this market. Essentially, those five-year "home owners" are really just in an outrageously expensive rental situation.

And, even if you really truly think you will be in your house for a very long time, you still should try and follow the tried and true affordability guidelines. Because even though you don't PLAN on selling, you could get divorced, or sick, or laid off, or have to up and move to New York City. And then you will be plenty glad that you bought in a buyer's market and didn't get in over your head because you will have options.

And don't give me that "but I have to buy a house RIGHT NOW" argument. You do not. I don't care if your wife is pregnant with twins. You have to find a place to live -- you don't have to buy it. There's no shame in renting. There is shame in wasting a lot of money. Especially if your wife is pregnant with twins.

Another Sexy Listing!

2008-04-25T16:02:00.000-07:00

I'm not suggesting that you be secuced ... but I am saying this is a tempting South of the Boulevard listing. No way on God's green Earth you would've seen a listing like this last year. Or the year before that. Okay, not in the last three years.

4601 WHITE OAK PLACE, Encino, CA 91316
(MLS #F1764256)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,195
Lot Size: 17,600 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1955
Listing Date: 04/23/08
List Price: $850k

Per Sq. Ft. Stats:
Based on List Price: $387
Based on Zestimate™: $502
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $478
Sold Homes: $282

Zillow rocks, People.

2008-04-25T13:39:00.000-07:00

On my recent post about the house on Nagle I was a bit careless in my comments about Zillow. My apologies, Zillow. Because honestly, Zillow is one of the best home valuation tool out there. Don't act like you read this blog but don't spend 20 hours a week logged into Zillow. Seriously, you aren't fooling anybody.

Is Zillow perfect? Nope. Can Zillow really tell you the exact value of YOUR house? Nope. It runs on an algorithm, People -- they are not going to your house and taking measurements and evaluating the quality of your roof. Zillow is not a damn crystal ball either. It cannot tell you what your house will sell for. You know who can tell you what your house will sell for? YOUR BUYER. Ugh. When you build a better algorithm, let me know. Until then, Zillow is the gold standard. It is. I know you want a crystal ball, but don't get mad at Zillow for not giving you one. They are giving you existing data and that has real value.

That said, Zillow posted a helpful response to my post and I figure it deserves some highlighting here. In fairness to my other commenters, I'm republishing all comments on that post (because even though we sometimes disagree, I still love you guys! And divergent opinions are important). Here we go:

Hi, it's David G from Zillow.com,We currently ignore all foreclosure transactions because foreclosures are typically not a measure of market value (in a normal market.) In a normal market, Realtors do the same thing when setting prices. It would typically be stupid for a seller to comp their home against foreclosures. Now, however, there are so many foreclosures in some areas that sellers have to compete. This is no "normal" market; at least in SoCal and elsewhere. Foreclosure inventory is so incredibly high in places like San Diego that foreclosures literally are the market. Pretty scary. Banks don't have the same motivation sellers do to hold out for their price. It's not hard to imagine that some markets are literally in free fall until the foreclosure inventory drops. Our analysts are actually reviewing whether there may be a way to identify and account for this phenomenon but for now, Zestimates ignore foreclosures.

April 24, 2008 6:09:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...
Hey David G- get used to foreclosures being the measure of the market. Hate to tell you, but the "zillow way" of assessing the market is over!

April 24, 2008 10:21:00 PM PDT
Anonymous said...
Hi David G. As a potential homeowner, I am extremely disappointed that team at Zillow feels that without foreclosures included this is a "NORMAL" market. Based on this simple post, I am concluding that your algorithm is not designed to handle real-estate prices appropriately. In a normal market people making 80K a year cannot afford 500-600-700-1mil homes !!! Foreclosures/REO's are priced (marked-to-market) by the banks !!!!!! Even though bank prices are still high, they (the banks) feel they are pricing these houses appropriately, yet you feel this is not part of a normal market !!!You cannot ignore market data !!! Foreclosures are part of the market !!!! Bad trades are not ignored on the stock exchange, yet you feel you have the right to remove valid data from your algorithms. Guess what, it is going to get worse, stop giving people hope !!!!!!!!Disgusting !!!

April 24, 2008 10:24:00 PM PDT
Emil said...
"Foreclosures/REO's are priced (marked-to-market) by the banks !!!!!! Even though bank prices are still high, they (the banks) feel they are pricing these houses appropriately...:Small distinction: Banks do not price the houses to what they should be worth (factoring out the housing bubble). They price them as high as they can, in a market of buyers willing to pay for that price level. "You cannot ignore market data !!! Foreclosures are part of the market !!!! Bad trades are not ignored on the stock exchange, yet you feel you have the right to remove valid data from your algorithms."On point! :)

April 25, 2008 7:48:00 AM PDT
ProblemWithCaring said...
Stop listening to David after: "Realtors do the same thing when setting prices."Annnnnd???Why would a Realtor WANT to comp a foreclosure when their commission is based on HOW HIGH a piece of property sales. I mean, is Zillow about market value pricing or isn't it? If you don't want to be a flash in the pan, stop using the outdated realtor model and ADAPT.

April 25, 2008 11:57:00 AM PDT
HP12C said...
Thanks David G for pointing out how Zillow is a trailing indicator at best and totally useless. In fact, it's more useless the more dynamically the market is changing in either direction by definition... BRAVO!Well there is one use, for realtors looking for another piece of inaccurate data with which to fool 'clients' into paying more. Is the the goal of Zillow? Your 'normal' market definition is bull$hit. Period. If Zillow were not fraudulent, it would show what it says it shows - what a house will sell for in the marketplace. How on earth can that not include foreclosures? Are market prices set by what realtors say they're worth or what people pay?

April 25, 2008 1:08:00 PM PDT
HP12C said...
Actually, I think it's important to point out that Zillow is more wrong the more a market is changing, but it's MORE wrong on the way down than it is on the way up - because it eliminates foreclosures but not very high (fraud?) sales. How realtor of you, Zillow. You're worse than everyone you're trying not to be because you imply you're not acting in the same manner to deceive and keep info from the marketplace.

People who rent are just throwing money away!

2008-04-25T11:58:00.000-07:00

If you rent, you hear this all too often. And some of you first-time buyers out there (Hi!) feel pressure to be fiscally with-it and get in the game. Well, take comfort renters and first-time home shoppers, renting has been the right choice in Los Angeles since 2004. How do I figure? I'm glad you asked!

What ya do is take the cost of owning and divide that by the cost of renting a comparable property. If you get a number greater than 1 that means owning is more expensive than renting. If you get a fraction like 1/2 well then it might be an excellent time to buy because renting is more expensive than owning.

Let's do the math. For a home that recently sold at or around $750k the tax would be about $6k a year (because the assessed value would be a bit lower than $750k). Let's say your mortgage payment is about $4k a month (times 12 months would be $48k/year). So just tax and mortgage on your $750k house is $54k/year. If your roof leaks or your sink clogs or a pipe breaks -- you'll have to pay for that too. And even if there are no repairs, you still have to pay for a gardener and big water bills to keep your lawn green. Let's be conservative and say you have about $4k/year in maintenance costs. Now you are at just shy of $60k per year or $5k per month.

What would be a fair rent for your house? I can tell you that in Sherman Oaks, most homes that were recently selling in the $750k range are renting for about $3,500/month. That puts the own to rent ratio at 1.43 (5k/3.5k).

I can hear you squawking about the tax benefits of a mortgage already. Well, zip it. There are other ways to get tax benefits. Yeah. That's right. Like you can do a pre-tax contribution to your 401k and IRA. Maybe you could do that in addition to your home ownership -- assuming you can still cough up the $5k a month -- but you could definitely afford it if you were renting.

In this market, nobody is going to sing the praises of home equity to me because: guess what? If you bought after 2004, you are upside down right now. Yes. You. Are. If you are very lucky, you can sell your home for exactly what you paid. But that would still be at a loss because you have to deduct all this from the sales price: (1) the 6% you will fork over to your agent and the buyer's agent; (2) 1.5% in closing costs; (3) all the interest you paid on your mortgage every month that you owned the house; (4) the cost of any improvements or repairs; and (4) lost opportunity costs (i.e. if your money were just sitting in the bank it would've at least shown you a 3% positive return but you didn't do that). Yup. And that's if you sold for what you paid -- imagine if you sell for less than what you paid. In that scenario, you not only lost a big old hunk of cash but now your credit is all jacked up.

So our renter spent $42k/year while our "home owner" (quoted because, in fact, the bank owns this house) spent $60k/year for the same privilege. And our homeowner lost more than the extra $15k extra he paid in tax, mortgage and maintenance every year, he also lost $56k in transaction costs when he sold his house for exactly what he paid. Sort of looks like it wasn't our renter who was "throwing money away" after all.

The chart below shows when it was the right time to buy a house in Los Angeles over the last 28 years. As you can see, there were plenty of opportunities to buy. Just not recently. And certainly not right now.

By the way, if our "home owner" earned a modest $150k per year, that leaves him about $600/week to cover the rest of his expenses. In LA, gas and car insurance are about $100/week. A cell phone is about $25/week. Utilities and cable are about $75/week. If you ate all of your meals at home you could get by on $100/week. Thus, after the basics, he'd have $300/week assuming he didn't: have a wife or any children, buy any clothes or gifts, have any student loans, lease or make payments on a car (that never breaks down or needs an oil change), get sick or injured, pay for health insurance, or spend any money on vactions or entertainment beyond cable TV. And that's pretty much the only way our homeowner could hope to save 10% of his gross income for retirement. I guess that's why they say your mortgage should be no more than 2 or 3 times your gross income, huh?

More on Nagle...

2008-04-24T17:44:00.000-07:00

So, just to give y'all a little more perspective on the Nagle listing (see earlier post), I cut out the Zillow graph for you. They've got this house priced at late '03 rates ($585k). I know a lot of you think we'll be seeing '01 prices before too long and I don't necessarily disagree with you but late '03 pricing is still a breath of fresh air.

Note that Zillow is throwing out the foreclosure sale price at $789 because Zillow can't believe how low it is. Ha! Believe it Zillow! Believe it because it's going to sell for about $200k less than that.

Once this house sells, which should be any minute now, it'll be interesting to see whether the value graphs for the neighborhood plummet or not.

Now we're talking!

2008-04-24T16:30:00.000-07:00

Can you say $290/sq.ft.? I knew you could! I am using some restraint to not put an offer in on this house. Why? Because I think the best is yet to come. But this is not bad at all.

4700 NAGLE AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1752937)

Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,015
Lot Size: 6,290 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 02/01/08
Last Sale: 06/14/06
Sales Price: $950,000

Price Reduced: 02/11/08 -- $704,900 to $654,900
Price Reduced: 03/03/08 -- $654,900 to $639,900
Price Reduced: 04/23/08 -- $629,900 to $584,900

Per Sq. Ft. Stats:
Based on List Price: $290
Based on Zestimate™: $386
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $452
Sold Homes: $433

ROAD TRIP! (May 5 leaves the Valley for a minute).

2008-04-22T15:26:00.001-07:00

Once upon at time, I lived in a land far far away. Well, it was pretty much a straight shot down the coast. Okay, it was San Diego. Anyhoodle, once in a while I peruse San Diego listings just to see how the market is down there. And guess what? It's a lot like here. Uh-huh. I'll show you.

Here's a little listing from the Mission Hills neighborhood. Trust me, it's a lovely part of town! Close to downtown, close to the beach, no tract housing... there's not really a comparable neighborhood here in L.A. but maybe Brentwood near Wilshire is as close as you can get. So what do you think a 900 sq. ft. 1+1 on a small lot would go for? Checkitout:

1736 WEST MONTECITO WAY, SD - Mission Hills, CA 92103
MLS #: 086008711

Bedrooms: 1
Full Baths: 1
Square Feet: 952
Lot Size: 4,356 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1925
Listing Date: 02/02/08
On Market: 80 days
List Price: $699,000
Last Sale: 01/13/99
Sales Price: $312,000

Sq.Ft. Stats:
Based on List Price: $734
Based on Zestimate™: $655
Based on Last Sale (1999): $327
Sold Homes: $360

It's a darling little house. But $700+ per square foot? When their market peaked back in '05? It'll be interesting to see if this house can move.

Nothing about real estate here

2008-04-21T11:52:00.000-07:00

I dreamed of an elephant in the ocean last night. It was the strangest thing ever. But guess what? Elephant's totally go in the ocean. And swim. Yeah.

Here's a supercrazyfantastic video link. Seriously. Awesome. And here's an article on Rajan the elephant that swims. What are you waiting for? Go on. Shoo!

You keep using that word -- I do not think it means what you think it means.

2008-04-18T13:26:00.001-07:00

A recent commenter tossed out the priceless Princess Bride quote that is the subject of today's post. I couldn't resist recycling it here for the word "drastic".

The listing description:

Drastic reduction! Spectacular chic entertainer's pad with wonderful view amidst a woodsy private setting.... blah blah blah

And here's the details:

3660 BUENA PARK DRIVE, Studio City, CA 91604
(MLS #: F1760298)

Bedrooms: 2
Full Baths: 2
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 1,185
Lot Size: 5,510 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1941
Listing Date: 03/27/08

Price Reduced: 04/17/08 -- $809,950 to $789,000 (2.6% down)

But it's not just the 2.6% (a.k.a. "drastic") reduction that set me off. It's also the outrageous price per square foot (even after the reduction).

Square footage stats:

Based on Original List Price: $684
Based on REDUCED List Price: $666
Based on Zestimate™: $685
Sold Homes: $420

This house is in a nice little neighborhood. But I can't imagine anybody shelling out around $800k for an 1185 sq. ft. two bedroom house on a small lot. In. The. Valley. I mean, come on. This house sold for $381k six years ago. Here's the Zillow chart:

Fun & Games

2008-04-16T10:25:00.001-07:00

UPDATE: It's a short sale situation now. They reduced the price to $899k (still WAY too much).

Here's a little game I play all the time. Basically you pick an MLS listing and, based on the photos and description, you try to figure out what they AREN'T telling you. Ready to play?

The description reads:

Land lovers [sic] dream! Half acre in studio city's [sic] silver triangle [sic]. A 'demi designs' retreat with private walking paths to intimate viewing patios and lookouts. Remodeled baths and kitchen with viking [sic] range, detached studio/garage, and flat yards. Walk to ventura [sic] and carpenter school [sic]. Location, location, location!

I have no idea what "demi designs" means. Do you? I'm also not sure what an "intimate viewing patio" is but I suspect it means you hike up the hill to a clearing if you want to see the view.

3867 RHODES AVE, Studio City, CA 91604
(MLS #: 08_267633)

Looking at the featured photo, right away you might wonder: "Where's the house?" A red flag in any listing. Of course, if your front door was this dark and uninviting, you might not want to feature it either:

I dunno, something about this porch makes me hear banjo music in my head. And not in a good way. More like in a "Deliverance" way. Anyhoodle, let's move on to the details.

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 1.5
Square Feet: 1,360

Yeah, I figured it was lees than 1,700 square feet. No wonder they want you to focus on the lot. So how big is the lot?

Lot Size: 21,180 Sq. Ft.

WHOA! That's a big ole lot. Kind of a small house, but a giant lot. You probably want to see more of the lot, right? I mean, the feature photo is lovely but that doesn't exactly look like buildable land.

Odd angle. Perhaps they hope you won't notice that this is about a 6 foot wide strip of grass (but how could you not notice that?). I suspect this is the "flat yard" they mention and I'm sensing a lot of unsuable land here so I Google Mapped it (I heart Google Maps!). Trees obscure the view of this lot (and if you can't see in, you can't see out) but the neighbor's house gives you a good idea of the terrain. Here's the neighbor's place and I've angled the camera up.

That's a pretty steep hillside a'ight. But just because this is a small house with a mostly unbuildable lot doesn't mean it's not a good buy. I mean, I'd still consider it at the right price. So what is the price anyway?

Listing Date: 03/31/08
List Price: $999k

Oh, Sweet Fancy Moses! That's $735 a sq.ft. Is there gold in dem dar hills? Seriously. But guess what? That's about what the owner paid back in '05.

Last Sale: 12/02/05
Sales Price: $965,000

I don't know why they paid that in '05 -- there must be one of those super fancy gourmet kitchens or something -- they did mention a Viking range. Let's look.

Guess not. I can't say for sure but it looks like those cabinets are from our excellent Swedish friends at IKEA and that stove is not the professional range you picture when you think of a Viking range. Love the way it's just sitting in a corner all by itself. Hello? Counter space? And what's up with that little shelf and stool to the right? Is that where you sit after the teacher yells at you? I expect a little (okay, a lot) more than that in a million dollar house. Let's look at the bathroom.

I guess this is the bathroom. There's a sink and a mirror so it's a safe guess. Judging by the fact that they won't actually step in there to take the photo, I'd say it's not a luxury spa style bathroom.

Well, it must be the view that's justifying the price. Of course, when you have a stunning view the listing typically features no less than three photos of it: daytime, sunset, and twinkling lights at night. Here we have zero shots of the view. And I don't think they forgot to post them.

New(ish) Listing on Contour Drive

2008-04-15T17:43:00.000-07:00

13480 CONTOUR DRIVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1760083)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 2,488
Lot Size: 7,627 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1938
Listing Date: 03/20/08
List Price: $1.549 M

This house has an interesting sales history:
04/30/1999: $ 580k
04/19/2006: $1.249M
03/16/2007: $1.425M

Yeah, you read that last sale correctly. They paid $1.42M a year ago. And now, after the worst year in SoCal real estate history, they want to sell for $125k more than they paid. I mean, I get it. The commisions on this sale are over $90k. And they need *some* wiggle room in the price, right? But how do you figure that your house held it's value while the rest of SoCal took an 18% nose dive?

I dunno. It could move. It's a nice house, after all. But I can seriously see this house selling in the $900k range in the not-too-distant future.

Sellers are right. Miracles do happen.

2008-04-14T14:01:00.000-07:00

One of my more eloquent readers points out that a home I profiled a few months back sold at list price (contrary to my opinion that the house in question didn't have a ice cube's chance in hell). Here's the link to the original post (complete with eloquent comment from said reader). But, in short, the home at 5762 Andasol Ave. in Encino Village recently sold for a whopping $770k (or $403/sq.ft.).

So, are miracles still happening out there? They are! A Van Nuys adjacent house can still sell at $400 sq. ft. and I think that's a bloody miracle.

Nevermind that the seller paid $772,500 back in January '05. (That's right, he sold for $2,500 less than he paid over three years ago, in case you failed to notice). And let's not forget the $46k in Realtor commissions. Oh, and the interest payments (approximately $48k per year times 3 years = $144k). Dang, when you add it all up ($190k), that was one expensive rental (about $5k/month). Oops! And that doesn't include three years of property tax & maintenance. And closing costs, twice. I'm pretty sure you could rent a 3+2 house in the area for less than half that. And, I dunno, maybe put the other $2,500 a month toward a 401k. Call me crazy.

But the seller still sold at a remarkably high price given market conditions. The Realtor Team who pulled this off? The Fred Meyer Team, on the web at http://www.fredmyer4u.com/. So if you want to sell your house for slightly below what you paid in 2005, you might want to give them a call.

Let's talk about the buyer for a second. Sure, shaving off the last three years of property value increases is sweet! But, umm, you realize that most of the bubble increase was pre-'05? Maybe I should draw you a picture of what I mean. Here's the Zillow graph of the property value for your house (your house is in dark blue and your zip code average is in light blue):

What I find really interesting is how much the gap between your home's value and the average home value in your zip code has shrunk. Back in '05, there was a $300k spread. Now there's just a $200k spread. See, that's interesting because it means that your house is losing value faster than the zip code as a whole. I bet that trend will continue. But, you know, I've been wrong before. Like when I thought nobody would pay list price for your house. I guess you showed me!

Stuff I'm looking at...

2008-04-11T17:28:00.000-07:00

This new spring listing is something I have my eye on because it looks a lot like last year's crop of new spring listings. Thus, I'm wondering if it can move in '08 like it did in '07. This is an ideal listing to watch because it's in a pretty popular little neighborhood (so it has a fighting chance) and it's a cute well-staged house on an average sized lot. Last year, this house would've moved within a month. Let's take a closer look.

4525 CAMELLIA AVE, Studio City, CA 91602
(MLS #: 08_270259)

Bedrooms: 2
Full Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,754
Lot Size: 6,480 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1937

Last Sale: 03/22/02
Sales Price: $420k
Listing Date: 04/08/08
List Price: $899k

Zestimate™ $843,000

Sq. Ft. Stats:
Based on List Price: $513
Based on Zestimate™: $481
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $378
Sold Homes: $376

The kitchen is clean and has some charm but it's certainly not state of the art. And you know what they say: "kitchens sell houses."

The baths both seem like they are good sized and somewhat better updated than the kitchen:

So what do you guys think? How long will this house stay on the market? And at what price will it finally move? I'm thinking 90 days with a couple of price reductions and selling in the low $700s.

FIERCE!

2008-04-11T13:13:00.000-07:00

Okay, technically, it was more like "ferocious" but I'll take what I can get.

The kind people at Redfin threw me a bone. Check it out here.

Krugman

2008-04-07T11:42:00.000-07:00

Y'all know who Krugman is, yes? If not, click on that link and get reading. You owe it to yourself.

So, Krugman is saying what YOU have been saying all along. Yup. From his CNNmoney.com interview:

How far do you think home prices will fall?

My preferred metric is the ratio of home prices to rental rates. By that measure, average home prices nationally got way too high. We'll probably basically retrace all that. So that's about a 25% decline in overall home prices. Only a fraction of that's happened so far. Of course, it varies a lot. In places like Houston or Atlanta, where home prices have not risen much compared with underlying rents, the decline will be relatively small. In places like Miami or Los Angeles, you could be looking at 40% or 50% declines.

What can Fed chairman Ben Bernanke do in terms of cutting rates? You wrote on your blog recently, "Keep cutting, Ben!"

Yeah, that's right. I'm now reasonably sure that they will cut again and again and again. A few cuts of 75 basis points and we'll be down to zero. And there's a pretty good chance that we're heading to zero, and that there's going to be a Japan-style ZIRP, zero-interest-rate policy.

Has that happened in the U.S. before?

Not since the 1930s. They didn't have the Fed funds target rate back then, but effectively we had a zero-interest-rate policy for a good part of the '30s. If the Fed responds this time with as much cutting as it did in the last two recessions, we get to zero. And then the problem is, What if that isn't enough? And there's a pretty good chance it won't be.

PropertyShark says: "It continues."

2008-04-04T17:38:00.000-07:00

And, to put those numbers in perspective a bit ... At last count, inventory in Los Angeles was around 54,000. Sales for February '08 were just shy of 3,500.

Inventory stats courtesy of the good people at Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking. A fine site if ever there was one.

Easy Down Payment Money People!

2008-04-04T16:38:00.000-07:00

ABC has a new summer reality series coming up and its appropriately called "Wipeout". Auditions are THIS Saturday. There's prize money!

GOT INSURANCE...?

FEARLESS CONTESTANTS COMPETE ON THE WILDEST OBSTACLE COURSE EVER SEEN ON TV, IN "WIPEOUT," A ROUGH-AND-ROWDY REALITY SERIES CURRENTLY AUDITIONING AND SET TO PREMIERE TUESDAY, JUNE 24 ON ABC

Human cannonballs! Human pinballs! Crashes, smashes and mud splashes! Twenty-four thrillseekers will compete on an extreme obstacle course designed to provide the most crashes, face-plants and wipeouts ever seen on television, in "Wipeout," a painfully funny new reality series premiering TUESDAY, JUNE 24 (8:00-9:00 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network.

LOS ANGELES:
SATURDAY, APRIL 5, 11AM-2PM
MysticArt Pictures1918 W. Magnolia Blvd.
Suite 206
Burbank, CA 91560

ORANGE COUNTY:
SUNDAY, APRIL 20, 10AM-2PM
Caf Tu Tu Tango at The Block at Orange
20 City Boulevard WestOrange, CA 92868

SAN DIEGO:
SATURDAY, APRIL 26,
12PM-4PMHard Rock Caf
801 4th Ave.San Diego,
CA 92101

For inquiries regarding casting, please contact
Tiffany Dejillo at MysticArt Pictures, 818-563-4121,
email wipeoutcasting@gmail.com.

SOURCE

Really? Your house went up a quarter million this year?

2008-04-04T11:33:00.000-07:00

I'm not exactly sure what's up with this Zestimate. I know that Zillow relies on algorythms and things fluctuate and so forth ... but this has got to be a function of them letting homeowners manipulate the data. Because, seriously, no house has seen that kind of change since January '08.

Anyhoodle, here's the listing:

4630 FORMAN AVENUE, Toluca Lake, CA 91602
(MLS #: B2102968)
(Not exactly sure this is the house but Google says it is.
Click image to enlarge.)
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 1
Square Feet: 1,008
Lot Size: 7,122 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1925
Listing Date: 04/03/08
List Price:~~$849k~~ Reduced to $799k 04/21/08

Per Sq. Ft:
Based on List Price: ~~$842~~ $793
Based on Zestimate™: $857
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $690
Sold Homes: $328

Trip Out!

2008-04-03T18:04:00.000-07:00

Google has street level photographed the WHOLE VALLEY. Not aerial photos ... street level. As in: I can type in your address and see your house as though I were standing in front of it. And I can walk up the street and look back at it too.

Crazy scary. Here's that house on Morrison (a.k.a. the "Worst Listing Ever") that I wrote about below. Check out how awful the house next door is! Click to enlarge image.

House Hunt Retrospective: They Made a McMansion

2008-04-03T16:15:00.000-07:00

The fifth house that E & I bid on was a true diamond in the rough. (See original post here). It was a nice big lot on a cute little tree-lined street and very conveniently located. It needed a lot of cosmetic work but the house was a good size with a reasonable layout. Well, guess who got it? Speculators. Yup. And they went and built a McMansion and it's ugly and it's sad and now you can buy it if you are so inclined.

BEFORE (needing some fresh colors and new landscaping):

AFTER (needing to be relocated to a different neighborhood):

16683 MORRISON STREET, Encino, CA 91436
(MLS #: F1753755)

Bedrooms: 5
Baths: 4
Square Feet: 4,200
Lot Size: 8,250 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 2008
Last Sale: 06/18/07
Sales Price: $730,500 Listing Date: 02/11/08
List Price: $1,629,000

Seriously, the WORST listing in Sherman Oaks.

2008-04-02T17:01:00.001-07:00

Okay, I've scoffed openly at listings before. But this one takes the cake. I am not kidding you, Peeps. This is by far and away the MOST delusional listing I have seen in my year of scouring the MLS. The description is so hilarious, I have to post it first:

"First time buyer's [sic] don't delay!"

Translation:
"First time buyers" = People born yesterday.
"don't delay" = Because if you took the time to open a newspaper or talk to just about anybody, you would change your mind about buying this house.

"Great opportunity to buy in sherman oaks [sic]."

Translation:
"Great opportunity" = This is literally true, it is a great opportunity (if you are the seller and you can find a big enough sucker).

"This fashion square [sic] traditional home offers original charm & more."

Translation:
"original charm" = No improvements.
"charm & more" = No improvements.

"Great for owner user [sic] to add & build home."

Translation:
Okay, I have no idea what an "owner user" is, but I can tell you that "add & build home" means you will have to tear down this home and start from scratch building yours.

Without further ado, I give you:

13964 MORRISON STREET, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1757259 )

Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 1
Square Feet: 1,122
Lot Size: 5,900 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1948
Listing Date: 03/05/08
List Price: $975,000

You read that correctly. This house is $869/sq.ft. despite the fact that it has one bathroom and it is the same size as an average one bedroom apartment. It has no view. It is not close to the beach and it is not in the hills. Finally, it does not appear to have undergone any improvements since it sold at the peak of the market for $650k. At the peak of the market!

Sweet fancy Moses. What are they thinking?

UPDATE: An eagle-eyed reader points out that this house is actually a McMansion now. Here's the current listing. But I stand by my position that this is the WORST listing ever. The listing photo is of the original house. The list price is not for the last sale (which was $650k) and it is not the currently offered price ($1.3M). So what the hell? And will anybody even remotely consider paying over a million dollars for a 5,900 sq. ft. lot that's Van Nuys adjacent?

Could be a very attractive listing soon.

2008-04-02T16:29:00.000-07:00

First, you don't see this style house very often in the valley. Second, it's been on the market for over six months and reduced about 16% over that time. Finally, if they lower the price to the low $300's/sq.ft., and you don't mind living fairly close to Burbank Blvd., this home will be quite the prize. Check it out:

5530 VENTURA CANYON AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91401
(MLS #: F1732590)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Square Feet: 1,798
Lot Size: 9,234 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1928
Listing Date: 09/01/07

Price Reduced: 10/03/07 -- $912k to $899k
Price Reduced: 10/05/07 -- $899k to $889k
Price Reduced: 11/19/07 -- $889k to $849k
Price Reduced: 12/28/07 -- $849k to $799k
Price Reduced: 04/01/08 -- $799k to $768k

Per Square Foot
Based on List Price: $427
Based on Zestimate™: $415
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $318
Sold Homes: $711

New Neighbor

2008-03-31T13:40:00.000-07:00

Well, well, well, guess who just moved to Sherman Oaks? I'll give you a hint:

Read about it here. Or just enjoy a few quick pics. This is the back of Ms. Pressley's new digs.

And these are the stairs. But if you've seen one McMansion, you've seen 'em all. Am I right?

MLS Photo(s) of the Day

2008-03-27T11:25:00.000-07:00

So, as I was perusing the MLS today, I came across this odd kitchen photo. You might not see the odd part right away. But focus on the counter lighting.

Yeah. Those are banker's desk lamps scattered around all the counters. How weird is that? Why would you put $16 lamps from Office Depot all over the kitchen in your $1.3M house? Seriously.

Then, this next photo from the same listing captured my interest. Do 'art' photos sell houses? Every once in a while you see a listing with a random close up of a magnolia or a rose with dew drops on it. Or maybe a little Buddha sitting in the yard. This one is particularly creepy though. It's like 'Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil' or something.

House Hunt Retrospective: THE DOOZIE

2008-03-24T17:13:00.000-07:00

I first wrote about this house on the L.A. Times blog, LA LAND, and also here. But there's been some recent noteworthy activity. Namely: a short pay.

4507 VARNA AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS# F1743246 Cyberhomes™ estimate $685,992

Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 1.5
Square Feet: 1,598
Lot Size: 8,100 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1949
Listing Date: 11/11/07
Price Reduced: 12/16/07 -- $869k to $839k

Price Reduced: 03/14/08 -- $839k to $790k (Short Pay)

Last Sale: 07/13/07
Sales Price: $789,909

Shall we all count down to foreclosure together? I give 'em another month.

Returning to Contour Drive

2008-03-24T13:01:00.000-07:00

I last wrote about Contour Drive here. One of those houses is back - after failing to rent (apparently).

13507 CONTOUR DRIVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1756948)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,038
Lot Size: 4,994 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1952
Listing Date: 03/05/08

List Price: $899,000
Last Sale: 04/21/05
Sales Price: $1,026,000

Per Sq. Ft.:
Based on List Price: $441
Based on Zestimate™: $508
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $549
Sold Homes: $728 (Pretty sure this number is jacked up somehow).

So, $127k haircut is pretty painful, no? And I don't think they are going to come close to getting their asking price. I think this owner would be very lucky to get $825k today. Very very lucky.

Dear Sir or Madam: Please step away from the crackpipe.

2008-03-24T12:40:00.000-07:00

4122 SUNNYSLOPE AVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: 08_255581)

List Price: $1,049,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,400
Lot Size: 7,980 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1938
Listing Date: 02/15/07
On Market: 403 days

It's possible they entered the listing date incorrectly because check out the last sale on 05/29/07 for: $850k.

Anyhoodle, I don't want you to choke on your coffee (or spit coffee all over your computer screen) so go ahead and swallow before you check out the per sq. ft. stats:

Based on List Price: $749
Based on Zestimate™: $654
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $520
Sold Homes: $572

D'oh! On Simpson Ave...

2008-03-19T17:39:00.000-07:00

4454 SIMPSON AVE, Studio City, CA 91607
(MLS #: 08_257215)

Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 3
Square Feet: 1,810
Lot Size: 7,727 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 02/21/08

Last Sale: 06/28/05
Sales Price: $849,500

Price Reduced: 03/19/08 -- $899,000 to $799,000

Here's the annoying listing description (or should I say: "annyng lstng dscr"?)

"Trdtnl hm welcomes you w/ a white picket fence, well lndscpd. Red brick porch & diamond grid wndws. Hm features hrdwd flrs & white beamed clngs in lvng room & fmly rm .The lvng rm w/ frplc opens to dine area, leading you to bright & spacious ktchn, recently re-tiled. All bdrms full of natrl sunlt, mstr br w/ wainscoting & mstr ba, lrg wndws & views of pool. Huge fmly rm features frplc & french drs leading you to prvt patio w/ pool & grassy area. Owner says approx. $100k of imprvmnts/repairs."

I love that, at the end of the description, the agent is basically saying: "The owner wants you to think he put $100k worth of improvements into this house but really the previous owner did. I want no part of this shenanigans but he insists I put this in. So there it is. Happy?"

And why would the owner insist on saying that? My guess is that he fell for it and figures somebody has got to be at least as foolish.

Oops! I almost forgot ... this house will sell for less than $750k (if it sells at all).

No hope on Hopevale Drive

2008-03-18T13:51:00.000-07:00

3954 HOPEVALE DRIVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
(MLS #: F1758841 )

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,234
Lot Size: 6,029 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1987
Listing Date: 03/17/08

Last Sale: 09/20/06
Sales Price: $1,355,000
Zestimate™ $1,171,500

And the current list price? Wait for it... wait for it...

$834,400.00

Sure, it's an REO. But that's a big (and kind of unusual) house in the hills of Sherman Oaks. This is gonna rock the comps fo' shizzle.

Here's the details on the priors:

10/12/2007
Sale price: $1,035,000
Buyer: Citibank NaN/Avail , 0
Seller: Quality Loan Service Corp

9/20/2006
Sale price: $1,355,000
Buyer: Farrah Madrid
Seller: Pechter,Steven J & Pamela M

House Hunt Retrospective: House Number The Third

2008-03-17T18:09:00.000-07:00

Behold, the third house we bid on. Here's the original post. I really loved this house because it is in a great location and I am partial to Spanish style homes. It needed work and it was quite small. It was listed for $675k. We bid $685k (Can you believe it? Me?! Bid over list?!) almost exactly a year ago today. Ultimately, it went to an all cash buyer with a crazy short escrow. It looks to me like the house is owner occupied and they did not tear it down. They just painted it mustard yellow.

The seller made out pretty well. Back in October 2004, she paid $492,636 (yeah, I don't quite get that figure either) with a $423k variable rate mortgage.

Here's what Zillow thinks has happened to this home's value since it's last sale. I think Zillow is smoking crack on this one. I doubt very much that this house would sell for more than $600k today.

I have to say that I am a wee bit disappointed that we didn't get this little house; even with all the market turmoil. It is a cute neighborhood and conveniently located. BUT, I'm sure something will better will come along with this all shakes down. N'cest pas?

Remember the Cash-Back-At-Close House?

2008-03-10T17:49:00.000-07:00

UPDATE: It turns out this house was recorded as two "half sales". That is, rather than record the sale as $650k (the actual selling price), it was recorded as two sales at $325k. Apparently this has something to do with how the title was held by the heirs. Still, $650k is quite a drop from the original list price.

I first wrote about this house here. And it's kind of the house that started it all. This agent was calling me and, in my humble opinion, begging me to commit a fraud. Which I refused to do.

Anyway, the house was originally priced at $825k and was ultimately reduced down below $700k as I recall. Finally, it went off the market and today I decided to look it up on Property Shark.

You'll never guess what it sold for. Seriously. Never.

On 12/27/2007 it sold for $325,000. At least that's what the County Recorder says.

Buyer:
Danut Popescu
13739 Hartsook St Sherman Oaks, CA 91423

Seller:
Gibboney Donald E Trust

Mortgage:
First mortgage - none
Second mortgage - none

So what do you think happened here? After a year on the market a family member finally decided to buy it? Seems unlikely to me. But what do I know?

House Hunt Retrospective: House Number The Second

2008-03-10T17:14:00.000-07:00

Here's the link to the original post about the second house we bid on.

This house had been purchased and re-listed within months. The guy bought the house and started to fix it up (he was doing a very nice job, btw) and then his dream house came on the market and he bought that. Which left him stuck with two houses. And he needed to at least break even on this house or he wouldn't be able to close the dream house. Hello pre-payment penalty! So basically, he wanted the new purchaser to cover the improvements he made, the agents' commission, his closing costs, and the prepayment penalty. But, sorry, the house hadn't appreciated that much in the five months he owned. We couldn't come to an agreement on price -- especially because I did not like the neighborhood. Eventually, somebody else agreed to pay the price and they appear to be occupying the property.

Here's the Zillow graph since last purchase:

I have to say, this is another house I'm really happy we didn't buy. But, once again, it's not so much about the depreciated value. This just wasn't the right house for us -- I wouldn't have been happy there. We were bidding based on very limited inventory in our price range (read: desperation) and we didn't really know what we were looking for in a house yet.

House Hunting: A Retrospective

2008-03-04T17:51:00.000-08:00

Well, it's been over a year since E and I started our little house hunt. Can you believe it? This week, I thought we'd take a look back at all the properties on which E & I made offers. Here's the first one (click on link to see all the photos).

It was a cute little house in Woodland Hills. E hated Woodland Hills. HATED. But it was close to where I was working at the time and it was on a really big lot on a pretty tree-lined street and a stones throw from the Gelson's Calabasis shopping center (convenient!). As I recall, we bid about $630k and it sold for $679k (but today, Zillow says it's worth $610k).

Here's Zillow's value graph showing the decline since last sale:

On the whole, I have to say I'm glad we didn't get this house. It was too far away and it was a bit too small. Tune in tomorrow for House Number The Second.

Forget all about $400/sq.ft. -- those days are over.

2008-02-29T15:27:00.000-08:00

So, remember a few weeks back when I was telling you that you had to price your house in the low $400/sq.ft. range if you hoped to sell? Well, you can forget all about that. Indeed, you've barely got a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the mid-300's per square foot these days. There are just too many REO's priced in the mid $200/sq.ft. range. And before you start with the whole "not in my neighborhood" and "that house is a dive" -- zip it. The houses I'm talking about are South of the Boulevard. As in: George Clooney and Brittney Spears both live in this neighborhood.
3191 LAUREL CANYON BOULEVARD, Studio City, CA 91604
MLS #: F1755087

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,842
Lot Size: 15,680 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1965
Listing Date: 02/20/08
List Price $745k
Last Sale: 02/27/07
Sales Price: $1,250,000

Per Sq. Ft.:
Based on List Price: $262
Based on Zestimate™: $480
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $475
Sold Homes: $510

Walt's Father is Ben's "man on the freighter"

2008-02-29T12:05:00.000-08:00

If you don't watch 'Lost' this is meaningless to you. Sorry.

Recall that when Walt and Michael are permitted to leave the island they are told "sail that way and a freighter [boat?] will pick you up."

$248/sq. ft. South of the Boulevard? You betcha!

2008-02-28T12:08:00.000-08:00

4062 WITZEL DRIVE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: F1752934

Bedrooms: 4
Full Baths: 3
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 3,220
Lot Size: 7,988 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1977
Listing Date: 02/01/08
On Market: 27 days
List Price: $799k
Last Sale: 01/12/07
Sales Price: $1,450,000

PER SQ.FT.:
Based on List Price: $248
Based on Zestimate™: $434
Based on Cyberhomes estimate: $461
Sold Homes: $417

Granted, this wasn't a gorgeous home. But it's big and it's in a good location. You never would've seen anything selling in this price range last year. And I'm a little surprised to see it this low, this soon, in the hills.

Comment that deserves a post...

2008-02-19T14:07:00.001-08:00

This comment was posted by an anonymous reader this morning:

"Kate--what's your sense of when the market will bottom out? Like anonymous above, we are waiting things out, but friends (who mostly already own, please note) keep saying this is the trench. I doubt it, but wondered what your thoughts are as a savvy trend-watcher?"

Well, in my humble opinion, we are nowhere near the bottom. I think the big drop in listing prices that we are hearing so much about is all phantom losses . . . mainly a factor of the purely delusional listings falling off the MLS. This happened when the last boom busted too. Agents can't afford to market listings that they know aren't going to move and so they drop the crazy pie-in-the-sky listings. But the rest of the listings have stayed pretty firm (for Sherman Oaks: South of the Boulevard we're still seeing the low $1M on average; North of Ventura we're looking at three-quarters of a million, and North of the 101 we're looking at mid-600s.).

We still aren't seeing houses move. Sure, once in a while you'll see an excited agent-blogger chirping about how such-and-such listing flew off the market in just days! "Could the market be turning up?" she blathers. The answer is: "No." Because the truth is, those houses that are "flying" off the market aren't closing. They fall out of escrow because the would-be buyers are either not qualified or simply figure out that it's not a good deal.

And, until houses start to really move, we will keep sliding downhill. There *may* be a slight uptick this Spring (just like there is every year) but that will just mean that the fall will be more dramatic this holiday season. That's just simple statistics. When you have only a very small sample of housings reporting statistics, they will jump up and down a bit more wildly.

In short, there's no rush. You won't miss the bottom. It's not like on Wednesday we're bottoming out and by Thursday there'll be a 150% increase. When the time comes, you'll have months and months to decide on a home.

But don't take my word for it. Visit some of the other fine blogs out there. Notably: LA Land and Westside Bubble (both are linked at the right). You'll find a wealth of links on Westside Bubble in particular.

And don't be shy! If you'd like to offer your two cents the comments are wide open, Peeps. Go ahead and record your predictions for posterity and for Anon

It's Ba-aaaaack! (On Noble)

2008-02-19T11:31:00.000-08:00

RELISTED 02/16/08 AT $740k

Price Reduced: 07/10/07 -- $849,900 to $824,900
Price Reduced: 07/17/07 -- $824,900 to $799,900
Price Reduced: 07/28/07 -- $799,900 to $769,900

Original blog post from last July: "These people bought this house in November for $705k. They have not increased the square footage at all but they think the house is now worth $850k. What could they have done to the house to justify that increase? Let me tell ya, for the additional $145k I could've put in a whole new kitchen, two new baths, a brand new jacuzzi out back, central air, a new electrical panel and all new windows in this 1,385 square foot house."

ORIGINAL MLS DESCRIPTION:

"This charming home is just steps from the blvd. With easy access to 101, 405 & pub trans. Harwood floors, smooth ceilings, crown molding, whitewashed wood plantation shutters, french doors, kit with custom cabinets w/glass fronts, bathrooms, eating in kitchen indoor laundry area, light fixtures and recessed lighting. The beautifully landscaped and lighted back yard has a covered brick porch and plenty of room for entertaining."

NEW MLS DESCRIPTION:

"South of the blvd.- incredible steal! Located in prestigious sherman oaks neighborhood of multi-million dollar homes! Charming traditional full of warmth & character. Features include hardwood floors, french doors, crown moldings, 2 fireplaces & plantation shutters! Lr with hw floors and fireplace. Gracious formality defines the dining room enhanced with chair rail & crown moldings. Beautiful sun-filled kitchen includes breakfast area, walk-in pantry & custom cabinets w/glass fronts & pot rack. Separate laundry room with extra refrigerator. Tranquil bedrooms have been tastefully designed. 3rd br/convertible den features fireplace, custom built-ins and french doors leading to gorgeous rear yard. Updated baths in neutral decor. Beautiful & serene rear yard is very secluded & features custom landscaping, covered brick patio & lawn. Perfect for entertaining or morning coffee. "

These were the pictures I posted to highlight the original MLS descriptions. I figured I'd trot them out again:

This house will not be selling for over $700k. The end.

Avg. List Prices -- What does it all mean?

2008-02-17T11:38:00.001-08:00

I've received about a dozen emails asking why real estate listings for Sherman Oaks don't feel that different despite the fact that the newspapers are reporting dramatic drops in average listing prices over the past five months.

The short answer is that list prices don't tell you much about home values. You need to look at local sales prices per square foot if you want to see the change in home values over time.

Basically, if I wanted to totally skew the list-price statistics, I could get all my friends in Sherman Oaks to list their houses for sale at $5M (even though the homes are each worth $1M). Suddenly, the average list price for Sherman Oaks would skyrocket. Yay! Listing prices are going up! Houses are worth more! Or are they? Not if my friends can't sell their houses for that price. And they can't.

So now all my friends lower their price by $2M. Their homes are for sale at $3M each and the average list prices for Sherman Oaks falls 40%! WOW! Have values dropped 40%? Nope. If nobody was buying at $5M, they were never worth $5M to begin with. It's a phantom loss.

And that's exactly what happened. Let's look at this real life example:

4702 HALBRENT AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
MLS #: F1735558

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,967
Lot Size: 7,800 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1941
Listing Date: 09/17/07
On Market: 153 days
Last Sale: 04/23/86
Sales Price: $226,000
Zestimate™ $924,000
Price Reduced: 10/05/07 -- $959k to $899k
Price Reduced: 10/30/07 -- $899k to $875k
Price Reduced: 11/26/07 -- $875k to $849k
Price Reduced: 01/03/08 -- $849k to $799k
Price Reduced: 02/16/08 -- $799k to $775k

As an initial matter, shame on the agent for letting this homeowner list at $959k in September '07. Seriously. Let me tell you how egregious this is. Just a few doors down at 4706 Halbrent a very similar house sat on the market for almost a year before it finally sold in April '07 at $810k (we don't know how much of that sales price was "cash back at close" so the true sales price could've been lower). And that was BEFORE the mortgage meltdown . How does anybody in their right mind think a similar sized house, on the same street, on a virtually identical lot, will sell for $149k more in the wake of the mortgage meltdown? Ridiculous.

So there's our first problem: figuring out what the real value of this home was when it was listed. Based on comps, and having viewed all the homes for sale in the area at that time, this house could have fetched maybe $430/sq.ft. (about $850k, and I'm being generous) when it was listed in September '07. Sure, it's in a great little neighborhood, but it's right on the border. It's just around the corner from busy Sepulveda. Also, the house doesn't have a lot of emotional appeal. It's a bland house that's had obvious after-thought additions slapped on haphazardly. (See image at right that illustrates the various roof lines as you proceed through the home).

Next, we need to figure out how much of a decrease in demand/value there's been in the past five months. In the wake of the mortgage meltdown, speculation completely dried up. I figure that speculators were willing to spend 10 to 15% more than real buyers (i.e. people who were looking for a primary residence to actually live in). So, let's figure this house dropped about 13% -- just from the speculators closing up shop -- which takes this house from $850k to about $740k over the last five months. Don't get me wrong, 13% is still a heck of a lot -- but it's a material difference from the 20% drop you would calculate based on the original list price of $959k.

But is $740k even the value of this house? The current owner paid $226k back in 1986. Adjusted for inflation, that would be approximately $450k today. Let's not forget that $450k still a lot of money. You'd need a household income between $150k and $200k, and a $90k down payment in the bank, to afford that. All things considered, I'd say this house should sell for about $350/sq.ft. (or $689k).

What is this house worth today?

more at twiigs.com...

$325/sq.ft. in Sherman Oaks, South of the 101

2008-02-12T13:52:00.000-08:00

This is truly newsworthy stuff, Peeps. You can now buy a house in Sherman Oaks -- SOUTH OF THE 101 -- for $325/sq.ft. Yes. You. Can. Behold:

4700 NAGLE AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: F1752937

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Square Feet: 2,015
Lot Size: 6,290 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 02/01/08
Price Reduced: 02/11/08 -- $704,900 to $654,900
Last Sale: 06/14/06
Sales Price: $950,000
Zestimate™ $877,500

Based on List Price: $325
Based on Zestimate™: $435
Sold Homes: $500

More in the $700s in Sherman Oaks...

2008-02-07T16:49:00.001-08:00

Apparently $700k is the magic number in the flats of Sherman Oaks these days. Nevertheless, this house is wildly overpriced at $685/sq.ft. (I will pause while you snort Diet Coke out your nose.)

By my calculation, this house is currently worth about $425k. Which is approximately what the current owner paid back on 04/25/2003 ($435k). And frankly, that's still way too much for a tiny house on a tiny lot like this.

4247 SUNNYSLOPE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: 08_253105

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 1.5
Square Feet: 1,021
Lot Size: 5,066 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1944
Listing Date: 02/06/08
List Price: $699,000
Zestimate $666,500

Low $700s in Sherman Oaks Today

2008-02-06T14:42:00.000-08:00

What's for sale in Sherman Oaks in the low $700s? Well, last year this time there was pretty much nothing below $750k. This year, there's quite a few choices. Let's look at two intersting listings that came up recently.

Listing the First: These people got to the party on time but are trying to leave a wee bit late. Their house is currently worth just a smidgeon more than what the paid for it back in late 2004. They'd like about $575/sq.ft. but that just aint gonna happen (especially North of the 101).

5528 BUFFALO AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91401
MLS #: F1749621

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 1.5
Square Feet: 1,250
Lot Size: 6,750 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 01/14/08
Price Reduced: 02/05/08 -- $735k to $719k
Last Sale:09/15/04
Sales Price:$575,000
Zestimate™ $596,500

Based on List Price: $575/sq.ft.
Based on Zestimate™: $477/sq.ft.
Sold Homes: $404/sq.ft.

Listing the Second: These people got to the party way too late. They paid $950k ($471/sq.ft.) in the Summer of '06 and then got foreclosed. The bank is only asking for $350/sq.ft. today.

4700 NAGLE AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
MLS #: F1752937

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Square Feet: 2,015
Lot Size: 6,290 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1951
Listing Date: 02/01/08
List Price $704k
Last Sale: 06/14/06
Sales Price: $950,000
Zestimate™ $878,000

Latest from Property Shark

2008-02-05T18:57:00.000-08:00

Yo yo yiggity yo! (Sorry, ever since I saw Juno I can't stop doing that). Anyhoodle, here's the latest foreclosure images from Property Shark (god bless that site!). I'm running out the door so there may be more later but I didn't want to delay in getting you this stuff pronto. Click any image to enlarge. Cheers.

Kate's Lost Theory

2008-02-04T14:25:00.000-08:00

I'm still working on this theory but wanted to jot down a few notes before I forget them. My apologies to those of you who were looking for another real estate post (which I will return to shortly).

The central premise of “Lost” is transcending birth and extinction. As, apparently, only Richard Alpert has been able to accomplish. Recall that Richard does not appear to age and Ben asks Richard if Richard even remembers what birthdays are. Further, Richard tells Locke that Ben is wasting his time with the fertility research. Also, the dead are frequently seen on the island (e.g. Christian Sheppard).

Ben's last name is Linus and Linus is the son of Apollo. When Hera discovered that Leto was pregnant with Apollo, she banned Leto from giving birth on "terra firma", or the mainland, or any island. In her wanderings, Leto found the newly created floating island of Delos, which was neither mainland nor a real island, and she gave birth there. The island was surrounded by swans. Afterwards, Zeus secured Delos to the bottom of the ocean. This island later became sacred to Apollo.

On the philosopher, John Locke: "Locke posits an “empty” mind—a tabula rasa—that is shaped by experience; sensations and reflection being the two sources of all our ideas. See also social contract theory. Social contract theory provides the rationale behind the historically important notion that legitimate state authority must be derived from the consent of the governed.

Richard Alpert is based on the actual Richard Alpert (a/k/a Baba Ram Dass) author of “Be Here Now.” Somewhat confirmed by Damon & Carlton in podcast.

“Be Here Now” continues to be an influential spiritual catalyst, and has inspired many to follow their own path with renewed faith and passion.

Ram Dass was also active in the Seva Foundation an organization devoted to restoring vision through affordable eye surgeries (see Lostpedia for eye symbolism).

The Dharma Initiative is based on the Lama Foundation. The DeGroots (who founded Dharma) are based on Barbara and Steven Durkee.

Locke is a tribute to Lawrence Ferlinghetti, founder of City Lights Bookstore and publisher of Ram Dass’s “Be Here Now.” Note that as commander of the subchaser USS SC1308, Ferlinghetti was at the Normandy invasion as part of the anti-submarine screen around the beaches. Two weeks after the atomic bomb fell on Nagasaki, he visited the ruins of the city, an experience that turned Ferlinghetti into a life-long pacifist." It’s not a mere coincidence that Locke blew up the submarine on the island, his gun is never loaded, and he can’t bring himself to kill anybody.

The ship Black Rock appears to be named after the Black Rock Desert, home of the Burning Man Festival. “The Black Rock Desert region has vast areas of land where travelers who experience a breakdown might not be found by others. The ease with which a visitor can drive onto the playa allows newcomers to take risks that they may not realize.”

The wild boars on the island may be a tribute to the Hog Farm commune and Wavy Gravy's
pig, “Nobody.”

Walt may be based on Charles Manson, member of The Family, founder of Spahn Ranch, who professed to have powers to stop watches with his mind. The Family was a notorious cult that engaged in child abductions and recruitment by use of sexuality.

Wow. Low prices in Toluca Lake.

2008-02-01T11:56:00.001-08:00

4446 PLACIDIA AVENUE, Toluca Lake, CA 91602
(Photo not yet available)

Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 3
Square Feet: 2,115
Lot Size: 7,616 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1936
Listing Date: 01/30/08
List Price: $849,900

Last Sale: 04/26/06
Sales Price: $1,475,000
(but the bank got it for $1,179,421)

Zestimate™ $1,258,000

"Foreclosure - lender owned! Updated / upgraded pool home in the heart of toluca lake. Hardwood floors - granite counter tops. House appears to be in good condition. Pool - seperate grassy yard area. Detached garage. "

But note that this house is across an alley from some commercial properties which no doubt affects the price.

Another lower than '05 listing...

2008-02-01T11:43:00.001-08:00

I found another home that was purchased in '05 that is currently listed below it's prior sale price. This one has an odd record (see below).

11600 KLING STREET, Valley Village, CA 91602
MLS #: F1748846

Bedrooms: 2
Full Baths: 1.5
Square Feet: 1,466
Lot Size: 8,202 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1949
Listing Date: 01/08/08
Price Reduced: 01/31/08 -- $799k to $789k
Last Sale: 08/19/05
Sales Price: $800k

Zestimate™ $766,500

So, check out the bizarre records for this home. Same buyer, two different sellers. Odd, no?

12/27/2005 Resale
Sale price $0
Buyer: Cohen Investments I
Seller: Cohen,Yafa

8/19/2005: Resale
Sale price: $800,000
Buyer :Cohen Investments I
Seller: Atkinson,Dean
First mortgage $640,000Variable Rate (Countrywide Bank )

Oopsie!

2008-01-31T10:46:00.000-08:00

Well, Peeps, today I bring you the sad tale of a little house that is being put on the market for $2,500 less than what the owner paid for it back in January of 2005. That's right: 3 YEARS AGO.

5762 ANDASOL AVENUE, Encino, CA 91316
MLS #: F1752098

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Square Feet: 1,909
Lot Size: 5,550 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 2005

Listing Date: 01/29/08
List Price: $770,000

Last Sale: 01/04/05
Sales Price: $772,500

Zestimate™ $771,500

Based on List Price: $403
Based on Zestimate™: $404
Sold Homes: $329

Here's the sad part: it won't sell for that price. Uh-uh. See, this little house is North of Burbank Boulevard. It's worth maybe $600k right now. Maybe. Woe is this house.

Another Reason Property Shark Rocks

2008-01-25T10:16:00.000-08:00

There's an REO in Fashion Square that caught my eye this morning. So I looked it up and found some surprising things. First, let's look at the listing:

14656 HUSTON STREET, Sherman Oaks, CA 91403
MLS #: F1747738
(Photo not yet available)
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,843
Lot Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.
Listing Date: 12/27/07
Price Reduced: 01/24/08 -- $729,900 to $709,900

But here's the part that got me wondering. Accoring to Zillow, this house is valued at $807,000 and was last purchased in September of 2001 for $270,000. Crazy, right? I mean how does a house that was purchased in 2001 for about a quarter of a million dollars get foreclosed when it's worth about three times that value today?

So I consulted with my excellent friends at Proptery Shark. And I noticed that they have added mortgage information to their site. Uh huh. That's right. Now you can look up mortgages. Supercrazyfantastic! So Property Shark tells me that this house was actually sold a couple of times since that 2001 transaction. Behold:

Last Sale: 4/3/2007
Sale price: $647,743
Buyer: Homecomings Financial LLC
Seller: California Reconveyance

Prior Sale: 12/21/2005
Sale price: $0 (How did it get recorded as zero when there is a mortgage? Hmmm.)
Buyer: Kayode Akinrele
Seller: Fortress Real
First mortgage: $595,000Variable Rate (Washington Mutual)
Second mortgage: $170,000Variable Rate(Washington Mutual)

Prior Sale: 9/18/2001
Sale price: $270,000
Buyer: Fortress Real
Seller: Dianne Kretchmar Estate
First mortgage: $243,000Conventional Mortgage Variable Rate(Impac Lending Group)
Second mortgage: none (Ah, the good old days.)

That $0 dollar transaction (that really was closer to a three-quarter of a milion dollar 100% financing transaction) is a bit of a puzzler. Something tells me it's not just a typographical error. I'm sure the reasons will come to light eventually.

Nevertheless, MORTGAGE DETAILS! ON PROPERTY SHARK! WOOT!

Notice the Tell-Tale Dead Lawn...

2008-01-20T09:44:00.000-08:00

UPDATE: Just 15 days on the market and already a $10k price reduction:

Price Reduced: 01/30/08 -- $694,900 to $683,900

Here's an REO for y'all. I know how you love those! Owner paid $850k for this heap last May. And, gee wiz, he's already out! Can you say "fraud"? I knew you could!

Bank is trying to unload it at a whopping $150k discount. But good luck with that. No matter what Zillow currently says, this North of the 101 tract house won't be worth anywhere near $700k for many many years, if ever.

5324 GOODLAND AVENUE, Valley Village, CA 91607
MLS #: B2102379

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Square Feet: 1,442
Lot Size: 6,337 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1956
Listing Date: 01/16/08
List Price: $694,900

Last Sale: 05/01/06
Sales Price: $850,000

Zestimate™ $748,000

Based on List Price: $482 (How many times do I need to tell people they need to price at or below $400/sq.ft.?)
Based on Zestimate™: $519
Sold Homes: $435

Eat at Nick's!

2008-01-17T17:31:00.001-08:00

Located just East of the corner of Moorpark and Tujunga at
11334 Moorpark St., Studio City
Phone:
Call (818) 760-3890 for reservations
Hours:
Lunch -- Tuesday - Friday -- 11:30 - 2:30
Dinner -- Tuesday - Sunday -- 5:30 - 9:30
Brunch -- Sunday -- 10:00 - 5:30

I just visited Nick's Grill in Studio City for the first time. It's fantastic! Sure, the Zen-like atmosphere is not what you expect for a grill but it's cozy. And the veal scallopini was amazing. If veal isn't your thing, they also have burgers and salads. This isn't really a vegetarian restaurant (duh. It's a grill.) so I wouldn't personally order a garden burger but they do offer one if you insist.

The wine list included several of my favorites by the glass so that always makes me very happy. If you like Maxx, Boneyard Bistro, Spark, and LaLoggia, I highly recommend you give Nick's a try. Feel free to add your favorite neighborhood (assuming YOUR neighborhood equals MY neighborhood) to the comments section.

Los Angeles Trustee Sales

2008-01-17T17:08:00.000-08:00

I'm in a bit of a rush so I can't do a big post right now. But I wanted y'all to get your hot little hands on these new charts from our good friends at Property Shark. I hope to update later...

(Click to enlarge any image)

Brittany's Realtor

2008-01-16T13:26:00.000-08:00

Y'all know that both Brit and K-Fed are my neighbors. Brit lives in Studio City and K-Fed in Tarzana. So, when I see Brit wearing a Realtor's t-shirt, I have questions. Not the least of which is: "Why would you wear that lame t-shirt?"

But also: "Who is Rogers Healy?" I've never heard of them. I googled them, and they seem to be based in Texas. Is Brit moving to Texas? Hmmm.

For my condo shopping friends...

2008-01-12T15:48:00.000-08:00

(Click to enlarge image)

There were several condos for sale on Ventura Canyon Avenue recently so I looked up one that appeared to sell. It was a 1,600 sq.ft. 2 bed/2.5 bath with one of those granite + stainless kitchens. It sold for $530k. Which is not too big of a surprise...

Until you realize that the identical unit next door sold for $610k in February 2006 (a 13% decline over two years). And the slightly bigger unit on the other side of it (1,700 sq.ft.) sold for a whopping $680k in July 2005. The graph above illustrates the sales on the $680k unit. Anybody wanna bet these units will be available in the $300k range by this time next year?

Check it out for yourself on Zillow.

More on cutbacks...

2008-01-09T18:10:00.000-08:00

Of the 90,000 mortgage jobs lost in 2007...nearly 16,000 were in California. Read about it here.

Th-th-th-that's All Folks!

2008-01-09T15:04:00.000-08:00

I guess I was wrong when I predicted the WGA strike wouldn't really affect the local housing market. I figured that working writers weren't generally living paycheck to paycheck and non-working writers were either renters not affected by the strike anyway (since they weren't working in the first place). I also figured that the it would be over before there were too many casualties.

Well, color me wrong because there will be up to 1,000 layoffs at Warner Brothers due to the WGA strike. (And this isn't the first round).

Check it out at The Hollywood Reporter and Huffington Post.

Ode to NotMartha.Org

2008-01-04T17:23:00.000-08:00

At NotMartha you can get an update of what's shaking with Megan and, being the unimaginitve creature I am, I figured I'd do the same thing here on Fridays. Or maybe one Friday a month. Or until I fall behind. Or just get bored with it. Anyhoo, here goes:

reading...

Lordy, I know some of you are likely to let loose in the comment section all over poor Al. But, say what you will, the man's led an interesting life and I want to know what he thinks.

watching...

"Crowned: The Mother of All Pageants" Carson is so fabulous plus one of the mom's has had so much facial surgery that she can't close her eyes. What? I am not ashamed to watch trash on TV. I've got nothing to prove.

listening...

I love Ira Glass. And you can download or stream past episodes for free! Especially interesting is the episode about people pooping in retail stores. Yup.

eating... Fruit. New Year's resolution and all.

busy....

Yeah. I'm busy with dancing. Not 'Dirty Dancing' and not dancing with E. Just dancing.

wanting....

I'm wanting a certain Doodle to have a bath. Let's just say she's ready.

Don't make me smack you, Bevis Beavis!

2008-01-04T15:53:00.000-08:00

UPDATE: See new reduced list price & Zestimate below.

I am having trouble coming up with the words to properly illustrate my frustration with Valley home sellers. First off, what part of this phrase is hard for you to understand: "Valley home sales FROZEN"? Either you want to sell your damn house or you don't. If you want to, you MUST price it below $400/sq.ft. and even that is not promising. So please stop clogging up the MLS with your delusion. Delusion like this:

4252 SUNNYSLOPE AVENUE, Sherman Oaks, CA 91423
(MLS #: F1748066)

Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,136
Lot Size: 5,562 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1947
Listing Date: 01/02/08
Price Reduced: 01/30/08 -- $829,000 to $799,000
Zestimate™ ~~$714,417~~ $649,000 D'oh!
Based on List Price: ~~$730/sq.ft.~~ $703/sq.ft.
Based on Zestimate™:~~$629~~ $571/sq.ft.
Sold Homes: $390/sq.ft.

Now, please focus on what I am going to tell you. Ready? I really need you to focus! Here goes:

Your house will NOT sell for $700/sq.ft. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not this year. Not next year. Not the year after. And not the bloody year after that either!

Do you want the magic sales price? $443k.

Too bad you paid $675k back in '05. You don't have an ice-cube's chance in hell of getting that back.

MLS Photos of the Week!

2008-01-02T18:43:00.001-08:00

We haven't done the MLS POTW for quite some time so I did some digging around and came across a house on (be still my heart!) June Street in Hancock Park. This is a house with great bones built back in 1925. Apparently, somebody outlived her husband and then decorated the house just exactly as she saw fit! Behold:

629 S JUNE ST, Los Angeles, CA 90005 (MLS #07_222897)

List Price: $4.2M
Bedrooms: 5
Baths: 4.5
Square Feet: 6,056 (!)
Lot Size: 24,000 Sq. Ft.

Seriously. Somebody loves her some aqua blue.

Nothing compliments flocked foil wallpaper like a pink velvet fainting couch. Am I right?

The extensive use of floral motifs throughout this home can only be described as man repellent.

The bedspread, the shams, the headboard, the curtains, the valence: all floral. I can't tell from the photo, but I it looks like there are two teddy bears on that chair in the corner that are also floral. The lampshades remind you of petticoats, no?

And finally, there's this room. I have no idea why there are two giant banquets facing each other like that. It's the kind of thing you expect at a bowling alley. Same goes for the linoleum floors and blonde wood paneling. And is that a bar in the lower right hand corner? I imagine this was where her husband (god rest his soul!) once entertained his man friends. What else could explain all those stain resistant finishes?

Revisiting Contour Drive

2008-01-02T13:08:00.000-08:00

Back in July I was looking at some houses on Contour Drive. (See Prior post at L.A. Land). It's been about six months, so I thought we should see what happened to those four houses and guess what? One sold, one is for rent and two have been relisted at reduced (but not far enough!) prices. It seems like if you want your house to sell on Contour Drive, it needs to be priced below $400/ sq. ft. But, hey, if you think you can get over $700/sq.ft. (you'll see what I mean below) then ... umm... good luck with that!

13507 Contour Dr. (MLS #: F1719868 )

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Square Feet: 2,038
Lot Size: 4,994 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1952
Last Sale: 4/21/2005 at $1.026M ($503.43 / sq.ft.)
Listing Date: 06/14/07 at $1.149M ($563.78 / sq.ft. )
Zestimate: 01/02/08 at $1,155,096 ($566.78/ sq.ft.)

STATUS: NEVER SOLD & CURRENTLY FOR RENT

13545* Contour Dr. (MLS # FR2055214 & F1732673)
* also known as 13547 as this is a consolidated double lot.
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 4
Square Feet: 2,820
Lot Size: 12,088 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1979
Last Sale: No Record
Listing Date: July 2007 (?)
Price Reduced: 07/23/07 -- $1.599M to $1.495M
Price Reduced: 09/03/07 -- $1.495M to $1.349M ($478.37/ sq.ft.)
Zestimate as of 01/02/08: $1,195,825 ($424.05/ sq.ft.)

STATUS: ACTIVE RELISTING

13553 Contour Dr. (MLS # F1722523)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3.5
Square Feet: 2,300
Lot Size: 6,650 Sq. Ft.
Yr Built: 1951
Last Sale: No Record
Listing Date: July 2007(?)
Price Reduced: 07/12/07 -- $1.025M to $950k
Price Reduced: 09/05/07 -- $950k to $895k ($389.13/ sq.ft.)
Zestimate as of 01/02/08: $853,397 ($371.04/sq.ft.)

STATUS: SOLD 11/29/2007 for $755,000 ($336.96/sq.ft.)

13566 Contour Dr. (MLS # 07_215347 & F1732137)

Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Square Feet: 1,500
Lot Size: 7,270 Sq. Ft.
Year Built: 1955
Last Sale: 02/01/2007 at$845k ($563.33/sq.ft.)
Price Reduced: 08/29/07 --$1.169M ($779/sq.ft.) to $1.099M ($732/sq. ft. )
Price Reduced: 01/10/08 -- $1.099M ($732/sq.ft.) to $1.075M ($716/sq. ft. )
Zestimate as of 01/02/08: $692,296 ($461.53/sq.ft.)

STATUS: ACTIVE RELISTING

Apparently El Sid hangs with Orlando Bloom in her spare time

2007-12-31T12:34:00.000-08:00